Reading the Trends Tab: MLB Futures and Ballpark Weather

The Trends tab is the long-horizon counterpart to the Live Signals terminal. Where Live Signals is about today's slate, Trends is about the season-long story — who's moving on award futures, pennants, and team win totals, and what the weather looks like at every park tonight.

What's in the futures section

We rebuilt the Trends tab to show only futures and long-term contracts — individual game lines are filtered out so the page stays focused. Futures are grouped into five tabs, each with a count badge so you can see at a glance where action is concentrated:

• AL MVP and NL MVP — awards futures from Polymarket, Kalshi, and sportsbook outrights
• World Series Winner — the headline market across every venue
• AL Pennant / NL Pennant — league champions
• HR Totals — single-season home run milestone contracts (e.g. "Will Aaron Judge hit 50+ HRs?")
• Team Win Totals — over/under regular-season wins for each franchise

Where the prices come from

Each futures category aggregates from four sources:

1. Polymarket — on-chain USDC contracts (we pull up to 500 active MLB markets)
2. Kalshi — CFTC-regulated USD event contracts
3. The Odds API — World Series outrights from major sportsbooks
4. DraftKings & FanDuel — MVP, Pennant, HR Leader, and Win Totals scraped directly from the books' futures pages

All American odds (e.g. +527) are converted to implied probability (0.16, or 16¢) before they're shown, so every price on the page is on the same 0–100% scale regardless of venue. If you ever see something like "52,700¢" — you won't, but you used to during early development — that's the bug we squashed when we standardized on implied probability.

Heat on futures

Futures use the same tier system as game lines (Cold → Warm → Hot → Blaze), measured against today's opening price. One important guardrail: a prediction-market contract with zero observed price movement is forced to Cold no matter what other signals fire. This stops a thin contract like a Bobby Witt HR future from being inflated to Blaze by an unrelated public-action boost when the actual midprice has been flat at 17¢ all day.

Ballpark Weather

Below the futures grid, the Ballpark Weather panel shows current and game-time conditions for all 30 MLB parks, sourced from Open-Meteo. Each park gets:

• Temperature, wind direction and speed
• Roof status (open / closed / dome / retractable)
• An over-score — a composite index hovering over the score explains the inputs (wind in/out, temperature, roof type). Higher over-scores mean conditions favor more runs.

The panel exists because weather is one of the few hard, model-able inputs on an MLB total. A 15+ mph "out" wind at Wrigley can move a total by a full run, and the dome status of Tropicana or Globe Life flips a whole category of weather inputs to zero. Use it alongside the live totals signals to decide whether a steam move on an Over is weather-driven or opinion-driven.

How Trends complements Live Signals

Open Live Signals when you're trading first pitches and live game flow. Open Trends when you want to position for the long arc of the season, react to a Cy Young front-runner blowing up, or take advantage of a heat wave hitting four open-air parks at once. The same Heat methodology powers both — Trends just zooms the lens out.