How SharpSideBaseball Heat Scores Work

The Heat score is the number you'll spend the most time looking at on SharpSideBaseball. It's a single 0–100 value that tells you how much sharp conviction is behind a given MLB line move, distilled from a dozen underlying baseball-specific signals.

The inputs

Each MLB market — game side, run line, total, F5, player prop, futures contract — gets scored on five dimensions:

1. Opening-price anchor (anchor everything else) — The first consensus price we observe for a market each day is stored as that day's opener. Every move is measured against the opener, not the last snapshot — so a line that drifted from -105 in the morning to -205 by first pitch lights up even if the last 30-second tick was flat.
2. Cross-book consensus — How many independent sportsbooks and exchanges are moving the same direction at the same time? Echoes between books that obviously copy each other are penalized.
3. Price velocity — How fast did the line move relative to normal volatility for this market type?
4. Public-vs-sharp splits & reverse line movement — When a market shows >75% of tickets on one side but the price is moving toward the other side (or the handle is concentrated on the minority side), Heat is automatically elevated to Warm or Hot. This is the signal that powered the "Public 82% on Yankees, sharps backing Blue Jays run line" example you'll see in the insight dialogs.
5. MLB context modifiers — Pitcher confirmation, lineup posting, bullpen rest, weather, park factor.

The tiers

We render Heat as a tier badge rather than a single 0–100 dial, because what bettors actually act on is the tier. Tiers are driven by the points of implied-probability drift from the daily opener:

Public/sharp split and RLM signals can boost a market up one tier even if the raw price drift doesn't qualify on its own.

Why we don't just count "books that moved"

A naive sharp tracker counts how many books moved the line. The problem: books copy each other. If DraftKings moves an MLB total first and FanDuel reflexively follows 90 seconds later, that's not two independent signals — it's one signal echoed.

Our consensus engine penalizes echoes (we measure timing and require independent price action) and rewards genuine cross-venue agreement, especially when it spans different types of venues (a sportsbook + Kalshi + Polymarket + Robinhood / Coinbase).

How fast it updates

Heat scores recompute every 30 seconds and are always measured against the daily opener, so a slow grind from morning to first pitch shows up just as clearly as a sudden spike. Pro users can arm Heat Alerts to get a toast, push, and email notification the moment a market crosses a tier they care about.

Why prediction-market futures sometimes stay Cold even when they look interesting

Polymarket and Kalshi contracts with zero observed price movement are clamped to Cold no matter what other signals fire. This prevents a thin contract from being inflated to "Blaze" by a public-bet boost when the actual mid-price hasn't budged. If you see a futures contract you expected to be hot showing Cold, the price simply hasn't moved versus today's opener.

Why some MLB markets stay Cold

Most baseball markets stay quiet most of the time. That's correct — there isn't sharp action on every game, every prop, every minute. A Cold reading is information too: the market is in equilibrium and no big-bankroll desk has changed its mind on this one.

Limits

• Heat describes the market's behavior, not the truth. A Blaze means baseball sharps are buying; it doesn't mean they're right.
• Heat is most reliable on liquid MLB markets — sides, totals, F5. On thin player props or obscure futures, the duration-confidence tier on each signal helps you judge how long the move is likely to last.
• Heat is a current-moment reading anchored to today's opener; it resets each morning when the new daily opener is recorded.