MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for September 24, 2026 | SharpSide

Thursday’s 12-game slate calls for separating conviction from disagreement with the market. Our featured matchups are Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies, where the largest SIDE edge is 2.2 runs toward Milwaukee Brewers; New York Mets @ Texas Rangers; and San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers. This brief refreshes at 11:30 am Eastern using new analytics, weather factors, pitching changes, and line movement, so featured matchups may change between morning publication and the refresh. Today’s Best Bet is highlighted immediately below.

Today's Best Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks ML

Today’s Best Bet is Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-194) in Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, the single game and line SharpSide has the highest confidence in today. The model projects Arizona to win 5.4–4.0, a clear 1.4-run predicted margin that makes this our strongest winner selection. Market and model agree on the favorite, with that margin roughly in line with the market’s implied margin. This is a conviction play, not necessarily our biggest edge against consensus, and the substantial favorite price remains part of the decision. Best Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-194)

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies

Milwaukee turns to reliever Bryse Wilson as an opener — he has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen this season (3.67 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 0.79 HR/9 over 34⅓ innings), so run prevention rests on the Brewers’ strong relief corps; Philadelphia’s Andrew Painter carries a 4.80 FIP and .324 xwOBA-against, both worse than average and favorable to Milwaukee’s hitters. SharpSide projects 4.4–3.7, a narrow Milwaukee Brewers win and a tighter game than consensus projects, with the model 2.2 runs more favorable to Milwaukee Brewers than the market.

Projection checkpoint

• First pitch: 6:05 pm Eastern

• Consensus score, away–home: 3.5–5.0, Philadelphia favored

• Model total / posted total: 8.1 / 8.0

• Betting-line comparison: +0.1 run against the posted 8.0 total

• Consensus-score comparison: Model 0.4 runs below the consensus total of 8.5

• Offensive BABIP: Milwaukee .314; Philadelphia .283; league .290 With Wilson capped at roughly two innings, Milwaukee’s bullpen — a 3.40 season ERA, well better than the 4.10 league benchmark — carries the bulk of the game, which is precisely where the model’s lean originates. Heading into Thursday’s rubber match, Philadelphia won the opener 6–4 before Milwaukee answered with a 4–1 victory in game two. Conditions subtract 0.27 runs from the projected total, a material adjustment despite no notable individual condition being flagged, and the posted-total comparison offers little reason to bet the total. How the model decided

• Milwaukee Brewers BABIP luck: LUCKY → model SUBTRACTS 0.40 runs from Milwaukee Brewers, which pushes the SIDE lean AWAY from Milwaukee Brewers and the TOTAL DOWN

• Philadelphia Phillies BABIP luck: UNLUCKY → model ADDS 0.10 runs to Philadelphia Phillies, which pushes the SIDE lean TOWARD Philadelphia Phillies and the TOTAL UP

Even so, Painter’s poor 1.57 HR/9 and Milwaukee’s strong 3.40 relief ERA support Milwaukee despite those opposing offensive adjustments. At +115, the price implies a below-coin-flip break-even win rate, while our calibrated view is essentially a coin flip with the faintest edge to Milwaukee. Painter’s peripherals raise Milwaukee’s scoring outlook, the conditions adjustment lowers the total by 0.27 runs, and the bulk innings behind Wilson remain the central risk. Milwaukee’s 3.40 relief ERA beats Philadelphia’s weak 4.31 and the 4.10 league benchmark; that relief advantage is the largest pro-Milwaukee mover, subtracting 0.28 Philadelphia runs. Lean: Milwaukee Brewers ML (+115)

New York Mets @ Texas Rangers

New York starter Zac Thornton has a 4.50 FIP and .329 xwOBA-against, while Texas starter Kumar Rocker carries a 4.36 FIP and .327 xwOBA-against, leaving both opposing lineups facing worse-than-average prevention indicators. SharpSide is 1.4 runs more favorable to New York Mets than the market, with New York’s upward offensive regression providing support rather than relying on Thornton’s misleadingly better-looking 3.40 ERA.

Projection checkpoint

• First pitch: 2:35 pm Eastern

• Model score, away–home: 4.3–3.8, New York Mets favored narrowly

• Consensus score, away–home: 3.6–4.5, Texas Rangers favored

• Model total / posted total: 8.1 / 8.0; no playable betting-line total edge

• Consensus projected total: 8.1; +0.0 model-versus-consensus gap

• Starter workload: Thornton 5.77 IP/start; Rocker 4.81 IP/start

• Bullpen adjustments: Texas projected runs −0.46; New York projected runs +0.23

• Offensive BABIP: New York .280; Texas .291; league .290 The Mets enter Thursday’s series finale seeking a sweep after beating the Rangers 6–3 in the opener and 7–2 in game two. Thornton’s 1.47 HR/9 creates real risk against Texas, and his defense-independent numbers do not justify treating his ERA as a complete description of his pitching. That said, New York’s strong 3.75 relief ERA supports run prevention, and New York’s unlucky BABIP adds 0.14 runs to its offense. At +112, the price implies a below-coin-flip break-even win rate against our essentially coin-flip assessment with the faintest edge to New York. The park/conditions input is neutral at 0, with no notable conditions, leaving this a tighter game than consensus suggests rather than a totals opportunity. How the model decided

• New York Mets BABIP luck: UNLUCKY → model ADDS 0.14 runs to New York Mets, which pushes the SIDE lean TOWARD New York Mets and the TOTAL UP

• Texas Rangers BABIP luck: neutral → no side or total push

Rocker’s 4.81 IP/start exposes Texas’s weak 4.48 relief ERA; that increases New York’s scoring outlook alongside its BABIP adjustment, offsetting Thornton’s vulnerability. New York’s 3.75 relief ERA beats Texas and the 4.10 league benchmark; its 0.46-run reduction to Texas’s projection is the largest pro-Mets mover. Lean: New York Mets ML (+112)

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers

San Diego starter Nick Pivetta brings a 2.33 FIP and .265 xwOBA-against; Los Angeles starter Tyler Glasnow counters with a 2.93 FIP and .266 xwOBA-against, strong run-prevention and contact-quality indicators for both pitchers. SharpSide is 1.0 runs more favorable to San Diego Padres than the market, projecting a tighter game and only a slim San Diego advantage.

Projection checkpoint

• First pitch: 10:10 pm Eastern

• Model score, away–home: 4.0–3.9, San Diego Padres favored narrowly

• Consensus score, away–home: 3.3–4.2, Los Angeles Dodgers favored

• Model total / posted total: 7.9 / 8.0; no playable betting-line total edge

• Consensus-score comparison: Model +0.4 runs versus consensus total of 7.5

• Pivetta sample: 30.0 IP this season, a modest sample; 1,241.0 career MLB IP

• Offensive BABIP: San Diego .285; Los Angeles .298; league .290 Thursday’s rubber match follows a 7–0 Dodgers win in the opener and a 5–1 Padres response in game two. Pivetta’s 4.67 IP/start creates substantial San Diego bullpen exposure, making the quality of the Padres’ relief innings important to this narrow projection. Despite that exposure, San Diego’s strong 3.46 relief ERA and Pivetta’s excellent 0.60 HR/9 provide concrete support for the Padres. At +147, San Diego’s implied break-even win rate sits well below a coin flip; the calibrated probability view is essentially even, with the faintest edge to Los Angeles, making this a price lean rather than a confident winner call. The park/conditions input is neutral at 0, with no notable conditions, and neither the posted-total comparison nor the consensus-score gap creates a playable total recommendation. How the model decided

• San Diego Padres BABIP luck: UNLUCKY → model ADDS 0.07 runs to San Diego Padres, which pushes the SIDE lean TOWARD San Diego Padres and the TOTAL UP

• Los Angeles Dodgers BABIP luck: LUCKY → model SUBTRACTS 0.13 runs from Los Angeles Dodgers, which pushes the SIDE lean AWAY from Los Angeles Dodgers and the TOTAL DOWN

Pivetta’s peripherals suppress Dodgers scoring, with appropriate caution over his modest season sample; the opposing BABIP adjustments support San Diego, and short-start exposure remains the risk. San Diego’s 3.46 relief ERA beats Los Angeles’s solid 3.81 and the 4.10 league benchmark; its 0.27-run Dodgers reduction is the largest pro-Padres mover. Lean: San Diego Padres ML (+147)

First Five Innings: Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners (F5 OVER)

The Bayesian starter model puts Angels–Mariners at 4.51 first-five runs versus 3.69 market-implied runs, a +0.82-run difference supporting the F5 OVER. The supplied blended pitching inputs are 5.63 for Angels starter Grayson Rodriguez and 3.86 for Seattle starter Bryan Woo, carried into a framework blending opposing-starter ERA with Statcast xERA. Rodriguez’s supplied F5-only ERA is 5.74 over 84.7 innings, while Woo’s is 3.77 over 140.7 innings, making Seattle’s opportunity against Rodriguez the stronger upward scoring input. The calculation includes early-game damping and a 0.930 park multiplier, so the over lean survives a run-suppressing park adjustment rather than depending on a favorable setting. Offensive regression subtracts 0.09 runs from the lucky Angels and adds 0.17 runs to the unlucky Mariners, strengthening Seattle’s scoring case while explicitly checking the Angels’ contribution. The 3.69 comparison is a market-implied estimate, not a quoted executable F5 line; the actionable lean below is tied specifically to 4.0. Lean: F5 OVER 4.0 total

Batter Prop: Spencer Horwitz Over 0.5 Hits

Spencer Horwitz Hits Over 0.5 in St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates is a market-based lean, not a newly invented player projection. Consensus pricing moved from -132 to -157, a shift of 4.2 probability-points toward the OVER from opening. Cross-book consensus moving this aggressively historically flags smart money, giving the movement more weight than an isolated adjustment at one sportsbook. The current -157 price is less attractive than the opener, so the evidence is the direction and breadth of repricing, not a claim that the earlier price remains available. Lean: Spencer Horwitz Over 0.5 Hits (-157)

How the model decided

The largest disagreements come from separating starter quality, offensive luck, and relief quality rather than accepting the consensus favorite as the starting conclusion. Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies illustrates that distinction: Painter’s weak peripherals favor Milwaukee’s hitters, while both BABIP adjustments work against the Brewers and their better bullpen supplies the strongest supporting input. New York Mets @ Texas Rangers is primarily a relief-quality story reinforced by New York’s upward BABIP adjustment, not an endorsement of Thornton’s ERA over his weaker underlying numbers. San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers combines strong starting pitching with favorable Padres offensive regression and relief support, while Milwaukee’s quantified conditions adjustment lowers that game’s total by 0.27 runs. Baserunning adds no runs in these featured projections, and unavailable exit-velocity evidence receives no invented explanation.

How to read this

These are SharpSide’s model views against the supplied market prices, not guarantees or financial advice. Recheck the live projection and available line before acting, especially where a starting pitcher remains unannounced.

Projections update after publish. This brief is locked in at the 11:30 am ET refresh, but the model keeps recalculating all day as lineups are posted, weather shifts, pitching changes are announced, and lines move — a side or total highlighted here can flip before first pitch. Always confirm the current number on the live projections page (which locks 30 minutes before each game's first pitch) before placing a bet.