MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for August 28, 2026 | SharpSide

Today presents a 15-game MLB slate, and the SharpSide model has identified key divergences from market consensus across several matchups. The largest margin edge of the day sits with the Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, where our model sees the White Sox as 1.6 runs more favorable than the market. We also highlight the Houston Astros at New York Mets, and the San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays for their significant market discrepancies. This brief refreshes at 11:30 am Eastern based on new analytics, weather factors, pitching changes, and line movement, so the featured matchups may update between this morning publish and the refresh. Today's Best Bet is highlighted immediately below.

Today's Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates ML

Today's Best Bet represents the single game and line SharpSide has the highest conviction in. Our model projects the Pittsburgh Pirates to win their opener against the St. Louis Cardinals by a moderate margin of 1.1 runs, with a score of 4.4–3.3. This projection is roughly in line with the market's implied margin, indicating a conviction play rather than a significant edge play based on market disagreement. The model is most confident in the Pirates' ability to secure a victory in this matchup. Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-116)

Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins

The SharpSide model identifies a significant market discrepancy in the matchup between the Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins, projecting the White Sox to win 4.5–4.4, in contrast to the market consensus of 3.8–5.2 for the Twins. This results in the model being 1.6 runs more favorable to the Chicago White Sox than the market. Luis Castillo takes the mound for Chicago, carrying a 4.69 FIP and allowing a .338 xwOBA-against, indicating he permits a higher quality of contact than league average. Dean Kremer starts for Minnesota, with a 5.18 FIP and a significantly elevated 2.15 HR/9 rate, suggesting vulnerability to home runs. The White Sox bullpen is an asset in this matchup, posting a 3.82 season relief ERA which is better than the league average of 4.10. Conversely, the Twins bullpen has struggled with a 4.92 season relief ERA, worse than the league average, contributing to a less reliable relief corps. Chicago is missing core hitter Andrew Benintendi, which the model docks roughly 0.09 runs from their projection. Both teams have experienced some offensive misfortune, with the White Sox's 0.287 BABIP suggesting they have been unlucky on balls in play, prompting the model to add 0.05 runs to their projection. Similarly, the Twins' 0.287 BABIP leads to a 0.04-run upward adjustment for their offense. The series opens tonight with no notable park or weather conditions. The White Sox enter with average recent form at 5-5, having won their last game scoring 10 runs, while the Twins are struggling at 4-6, losing their last game while scoring 4 runs. How the model decided: The biggest factor favoring Chicago White Sox is Minnesota Twins's vulnerable 4.92 bullpen ERA, which is worse than the roughly 4.10 league average and improves Chicago White Sox's scoring outlook. Lean: Chicago White Sox ML (+101)

Houston Astros @ New York Mets

Tonight's game between the Houston Astros and New York Mets presents another notable divergence, with SharpSide's model projecting the Mets to win 3.8–3.9, while the market favors the Astros at 4.2–3.3. This translates to the model being 1.0 runs more favorable to the New York Mets. Houston sends Hunter Brown to the mound, who holds a 3.51 ERA and a 1.21 HR/9, indicating he generally keeps the ball in the park. For the Mets, Christian Scott starts with a 3.73 ERA and an impressive 11.18 K/9, suggesting strong strikeout potential. Scott's average workload of 4.92 IP/start indicates a short outing, exposing the Mets' bullpen earlier than average. However, the Mets' bullpen has been solid with a 3.70 season relief ERA, better than the league average of 4.10. The Astros' bullpen, with a 4.10 season relief ERA, is league average, but their fatigue index of 0.12 causes a +0.16 run nudge to the New York Mets' projected runs. Both offenses have been unlucky on balls in play; the Astros' 0.280 BABIP leads to a 0.15-run upward adjustment, and the Mets' 0.278 BABIP adds 0.16 runs to their projection. The Astros are 4-6 in their last 10 games, winning their last outing with 5 runs, while the Mets are 5-5, having lost their last game while scoring 2 runs. This is the series opener, with no notable park or weather conditions. How the model decided: The biggest factor favoring New York Mets is its 3.70 bullpen ERA, a better-than-average run-prevention mark that also tops Houston Astros's 4.10 mark. Lean: New York Mets ML (+109)

San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays

In the San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays matchup, the SharpSide model projects the Padres to win 3.7–3.6, while the market favors the Rays at 3.3–4.2. This represents the model being 1.0 runs more favorable to the San Diego Padres. Casey Mize pitches for the Padres, boasting a strong 3.28 FIP and an excellent 0.86 HR/9, indicating effective pitching that limits hard contact and home runs. Shane McClanahan starts for the Rays with a 3.1 ERA and a low 0.67 HR/9, also showing strong home run suppression. McClanahan averages 4.76 IP/start, which indicates a shorter outing and a heavier reliance on the Rays' bullpen. However, the Padres possess a strong relief corps with a 3.46 season relief ERA, significantly better than the league average of 4.10. This strong Padres bullpen causes a substantial -0.75 run nudge to the Tampa Bay Rays' projected runs. The Rays' bullpen is league average with a 4.10 ERA. The Padres' offense has experienced bad luck with a 0.280 BABIP, leading the model to add 0.14 runs to their projection. Conversely, the Rays have been lucky with a 0.298 BABIP, causing the model to subtract 0.12 runs from their projection. Both teams enter as average in their last 10 games, with the Padres at 6-4 and the Rays at 5-5; both won their last game scoring 3 runs. This is a series opener, with no notable park or weather conditions. How the model decided: The biggest factor favoring San Diego Padres is its 3.46 bullpen ERA, a better-than-average run-prevention mark that also tops Tampa Bay Rays's 4.10 mark. Lean: San Diego Padres ML (+113)

First Five Innings: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals (F5 OVER)

Tonight's First Five Innings play features the Pittsburgh Pirates at the St. Louis Cardinals. Our Bayesian starter model projects a First Five Innings total of 4.97 runs, significantly higher than the market-implied 3.64 runs, creating an edge on the over. Pittsburgh starter Jared Jones brings a blended F5-only ERA of 4.66, while St. Louis starter Quinn Mathews, despite a small sample size, shows a blended F5-only ERA of 5.80 after being regressed toward league average. The Pirates' offense has been lucky on balls in play (.298 BABIP), which pushes their projected runs down by 0.36 runs, while the Cardinals' offense has been unlucky (.285 BABIP), leading to a 0.12-run upward adjustment for their offense. Lean: F5 OVER 4.0 total

How the model decided

Today's largest divergences from market consensus are driven by a combination of starting pitcher peripherals, bullpen quality, and offensive BABIP regression. The White Sox lean, for example, is heavily influenced by their superior bullpen metrics and the model's adjustment for their unlucky BABIP. The Mets' lean is a result of Christian Scott's strong strikeout capability and their bullpen advantage, further bolstered by BABIP regression. The Padres benefit from a strong starting pitching performance from Casey Mize combined with their elite bullpen and negative BABIP regression for their opponent. The model also considered advanced Sabermetric data, systems trends, and other analytics, including the "Favorite coming off a blowout win (margin ≥ 5)" system which fired on today's White Sox game, historically hitting at a 58.2% rate versus a 57.0% baseline.

How to read this

This analysis represents the SharpSide model's view of value relative to market prices, not financial advice. All decisions are the reader's sole responsibility.

Projections update after publish. This brief is locked in at the 11:30 am ET refresh, but the model keeps recalculating all day as lineups are posted, weather shifts, pitching changes are announced, and lines move — a side or total highlighted here can flip before first pitch. Always confirm the current number on the live projections page (which locks 30 minutes before each game's first pitch) before placing a bet.