MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for August 25, 2026 | SharpSide

Today's 15-game Tuesday slate presents a number of intriguing matchups across MLB, with our SharpSide model identifying several spots where market consensus diverges from our projections. The largest single edge on today's board comes in the Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks game, where our model sees a 1.56-run edge on the F5 total. We'll be breaking down that game along with the Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays. Remember, this brief refreshes at 11:30 am Eastern based on new analytics, weather factors, pitching changes, and line movement, so these featured matchups may update. Our top conviction play of the day is highlighted immediately below.

Today's Best Bet: New York Yankees ML

Today's Best Bet is the single game and line SharpSide has the highest confidence in: the New York Yankees on the moneyline at -142 against the Houston Astros. Our model projects the Yankees to secure a win with a slim 0.4-run advantage, forecasting a 4.1–4.5 final score. While this margin is narrow, it is roughly in line with the market's implied margin. This is a conviction play, not necessarily an edge play, signaling the game the model is most certain of the outcome, even if the projected margin suggests a close contest. Best Bet: New York Yankees ML (-142)

Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners

Our model projects the Philadelphia Phillies to defeat the Seattle Mariners by a score of 4.0–3.9, a notable shift from the market consensus which favors Seattle 4.5–3.0. This translates to our model being 1.6 runs more favorable to the Phillies than the current market pricing. Philadelphia sends Aaron Nola to the mound, who carries a 4.92 FIP (suggesting he allows more baserunners than his ERA indicates) and a high 2.04 HR/9, indicating vulnerability to home runs. Facing him for Seattle is George Kirby, whose 3.76 FIP is better than league average and his 0.308 xwOBA-against points to a propensity for inducing weak contact. The Mariners' bullpen poses a potential problem for Seattle, with a 4.40 season relief ERA, worse than the league average of 4.10, and a 0.10 fatigue index, which causes a +0.26 run nudge to the Phillies' projected runs. Both teams have experienced some bad luck on balls in play this season; the Phillies' 0.285 BABIP leads our model to regress their offense up by 0.07 runs, while the Mariners' 0.274 BABIP results in a 0.21-run increase for their projected offense. Heading into tonight's game two of three, the Mariners took game one decisively, winning 9-2. The Phillies, however, have been in strong form recently, going 9-1 in their last 10 contests, while Seattle is 6-4 over the same span. How the model decided: The biggest factor favoring Philadelphia Phillies is Seattle Mariners's vulnerable 4.40 bullpen ERA, which is worse than the roughly 4.10 league average and improves Philadelphia Phillies's scoring outlook. Lean: Philadelphia Phillies ML (-104)

Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays

The SharpSide model projects the Kansas City Royals to beat the Toronto Blue Jays 4.5–4.1, in stark contrast to the market consensus that favors Toronto 4.7–3.8. This represents a 1.3-run swing in favor of the Royals compared to the market. Kansas City starts Seth Lugo, whose 4.08 FIP is better than league average, while his 0.345 xwOBA-against suggests he allows harder contact. Toronto counters with Max Scherzer, whose 7.40 ERA and 6.53 FIP are well above league average, and his 0.332 xwOBA-against indicates hard contact. Scherzer's modest sample size of 45.0 IP and short average workload of 4.39 IP per start signal a bullpen game. The Royals are without core hitter Maikel Garcia tonight, which docks their projection by approximately 0.09 runs. Kansas City's bullpen has a 5.21 season relief ERA, significantly worse than the league average of 4.10, which pushes the Blue Jays' projected runs up by 0.25. Conversely, Toronto’s bullpen is stronger with a 3.78 ERA and is relatively rested (fatigue index -0.18), nudging the Royals' runs down by 0.55. The Royals come into this series opener on a hot streak, with a 9-1 record in their last 10 games, having won their last outing scoring 11 runs. The Blue Jays are 5-5 in their last 10, losing their previous game 3-0. How the model decided: The biggest factor favoring Kansas City Royals is its starter's 4.08 FIP, a better-than-average indicator of run prevention and stronger than the opposing starter's 6.53 FIP. Lean: Kansas City Royals ML (+110)

Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Our model sees the Chicago Cubs defeating the Arizona Diamondbacks 4.2–3.6. While the market also favors the Cubs 4.5–3.6, our model sees a tighter game, being 0.3 runs more favorable to the Diamondbacks than the market. Value fill — the slate produced few genuine model-vs-market divergences today, so this is our projected winner at the best available price rather than a divergence play. Lower conviction than a full edge lean. The Cubs send Clay Holmes to the mound, who boasts a strong 2.49 ERA and a respectable 0.310 xwOBA-against, indicating he generally limits hard contact. For the Diamondbacks, Brandon Pfaadt starts with a 3.39 ERA and an even better 0.292 xwOBA-against, suggesting he is very effective at inducing weak contact. The Diamondbacks' bullpen is currently taxed (fatigue index 0.22), which causes a +0.33 run nudge to the Cubs' projected runs, as less effective relievers are expected to cover more innings. The Cubs have been lucky on balls in play, with a 0.293 BABIP, leading our model to subtract 0.05 runs from their offense. The Diamondbacks, however, have been unlucky with a 0.282 BABIP, causing our model to add 0.12 runs to their projected offense. The series continues tonight after the Cubs took game one yesterday with a dominant 7-0 victory. Both teams are at 5-5 in their last 10 games, indicating middling recent form. How the model decided: The biggest factor favoring Chicago Cubs is Arizona Diamondbacks's vulnerable 4.18 bullpen ERA, which is worse than the roughly 4.10 league average and improves Chicago Cubs's scoring outlook. Lean: Chicago Cubs ML (-109)

First Five Innings: Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5 UNDER)

Our Bayesian starter model projects a First Five Innings total of 2.65 runs for the Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks matchup, a significant -1.56 run edge compared to the market's implied 4.21 runs. This strong UNDER lean is primarily driven by the starting pitching matchup. Clay Holmes for the Cubs, with his F5-only ERA of 2.74 (blended from his 2.47 F5 ERA and 2.49 season ERA), is projected to keep early runs suppressed. Brandon Pfaadt for the Diamondbacks is even stronger, with an F5-only ERA of 2.79 (blended from his 2.22 F5 ERA and 3.39 season ERA), indicating he limits opponents well in the early frames. Additionally, the Cubs' offense has been lucky on balls in play (0.293 BABIP), causing our model to regress their offense down by 0.05 runs in the context of early innings. Lean: F5 UNDER 4.0 total

How the model decided

Today's slate saw several key categories influencing our model's divergences from market consensus. Starter quality played a significant role, particularly Max Scherzer's elevated FIP and xwOBA-against in the Royals-Blue Jays game, which pushed the Royals' run projection higher. Bullpen health and effectiveness were also major factors; the Mariners' fatigued bullpen nudged the Phillies' runs up, while the Diamondbacks' taxed bullpen similarly boosted the Cubs. BABIP luck regression also had an impact, with the Mariners' unlucky BABIP adding runs to their projection and the Cubs' lucky BABIP subtracting runs from theirs. The model also considered advanced Sabermetric data, systems trends, and other analytics. Notably, both the Royals and Cubs ML picks fired on our "Favorite coming off a blowout win (margin ≥ 5)" system, which has a historical hit rate of 58.2% versus a 57.0% baseline, indicating a +1.3 percentage point lift over 158 instances.

How to read this

This analysis represents our model's projected outcomes and divergences from prevailing market odds. It is provided for informational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice.

Projections update after publish. This brief is locked in at the 11:30 am ET refresh, but the model keeps recalculating all day as lineups are posted, weather shifts, pitching changes are announced, and lines move — a side or total highlighted here can flip before first pitch. Always confirm the current number on the live projections page (which locks 30 minutes before each game's first pitch) before placing a bet.