MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for August 24, 2026 | SharpSide

Today's 10-game MLB slate presents several divergences from market consensus, highlighted by our model. We've identified three key matchups for Monday where SharpSide's projections vary significantly: the Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres, the Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners, and the Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins. The largest single run-edge today is found in the Pirates-Padres game, where our model sees the San Diego Padres as 1.5 runs more favorable than the market. This brief refreshes at 11:30 am Eastern based on new analytics, weather factors, pitching changes, and line movement, so the featured matchups may update between the morning publish and the 11:30 am refresh. Today's Best Bet is highlighted immediately after this lede.

Today's Best Bet: Chicago White Sox ML

Today's Best Bet is the Chicago White Sox ML (-130) against the Texas Rangers. This is the single game and line SharpSide has the highest confidence in today. Our model projects the Chicago White Sox to win by a narrow 0.4 runs, with a projected score of 4.0–4.4. This margin is roughly in line with the market's implied margin, indicating a conviction play where the model sees the most likely outcome, rather than a significant edge against the market. While not a wide divergence, this game represents our highest conviction pick on the slate. Best Bet: Chicago White Sox ML (-130)

Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres

Our model projects a 3.5–4.1 score in favor of the San Diego Padres, while the market consensus anticipates a 4.2–3.3 win for the Pittsburgh Pirates. This represents a significant 1.5-run shift in favor of the San Diego Padres compared to market expectations, resulting in a lean toward San Diego on the moneyline. San Diego's Robbie Ray takes the mound, bringing a 3.20 ERA and a concerning 4.59 FIP, suggesting he has benefited from some good fortune, and his .329 xwOBA-against indicates he allows harder contact than average. Opposite him, Braxton Ashcraft for Pittsburgh has a 3.58 FIP and a solid 0.284 xwOBA-against, implying he generates weak contact. The San Diego Padres' bullpen, with a 3.52 season relief ERA (compared to the league average of 4.10) and a low fatigue index of 0.04, is projected to be a significant factor, expected to reduce the Pirates' projected runs by 0.30. This series opener finds the San Diego Padres entering with stronger recent form, going 7-3 in their last 10 games, including an 8-0 shutout victory in their last outing. The Pirates, meanwhile, are 5-5 in their last 10, also coming off a shutout loss where they scored zero runs. Offensively, the Pirates have benefited from some luck on balls in play, with a .314 BABIP (league average .290), leading our model to regress their offense down by 0.39 runs. Conversely, the San Diego Padres have been unlucky with a .281 BABIP, prompting a 0.13-run upward regression to their offense. A SharpSide system also fired here: "Favorite coming off a blowout win (margin ≥ 5)" historically yields a 58.2% hit rate, 1.3 percentage points above baseline, and the Padres qualify tonight. How the model decided: The biggest factor favoring San Diego Padres is Pittsburgh Pirates's vulnerable 4.17 bullpen ERA, which is worse than the roughly 4.10 league average and improves San Diego Padres's scoring outlook. Lean: San Diego Padres ML (-107)

Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners

The SharpSide model projects the Philadelphia Phillies to win this game 3.8–3.3, differing from the market's 3.7–2.8 projection, resulting in the model seeing a tighter game than consensus. Value fill — the slate produced few genuine model-vs-market divergences today, so this is our projected winner at the best available price rather than a divergence play. Lower conviction than a full edge lean. Philadelphia's Zack Wheeler brings a strong 3.21 FIP and an excellent 0.260 xwOBA-against, indicating he suppresses hard contact effectively and is a top-tier pitcher. Logan Gilbert for Seattle counters with a 3.56 FIP and a 0.297 xwOBA-against, also pitching well but with slightly less contact suppression. The Phillies' bullpen has a 4.31 season relief ERA, slightly worse than the league average of 4.10, while the Mariners' bullpen is weaker at 4.44, causing a 0.31-run nudge to the Phillies' projected runs. This series opener pits two teams with differing recent trajectories. The Philadelphia Phillies are strong, with a 9-1 record in their last 10 games, including a 6-run winning effort in their most recent contest. The Seattle Mariners are holding their own at 6-4 over their last 10, but lost their last game while scoring only 2 runs. Both offenses have experienced some bad luck on balls in play: the Phillies with a .286 BABIP (model adds 0.06 runs) and the Mariners with an even unluckier .274 BABIP (model adds 0.20 runs to their offense). Conditions are neutral with no notable park or weather score. How the model decided: The biggest factor favoring Philadelphia Phillies is Seattle Mariners's vulnerable 4.44 bullpen ERA, which is worse than the roughly 4.10 league average and improves Philadelphia Phillies's scoring outlook. Lean: Philadelphia Phillies ML (-116)

Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins

Our model projects the Boston Red Sox to win 4.0–3.2 against the Miami Marlins, a slightly closer game than the market consensus of 4.2–3.3, which also favors Boston. Value fill — the slate produced few genuine model-vs-market divergences today, so this is our projected winner at the best available price rather than a divergence play. Lower conviction than a full edge lean. Boston sends Ranger Suarez to the mound, who boasts an excellent 2.87 FIP and a low 0.56 HR/9, indicating strong control and home run suppression. Miami counters with Sandy Alcantara, who has a 3.84 FIP and a 0.92 HR/9, also effective but not quite at Suarez's level in terms of advanced metrics. A key factor is Suarez's short average workload of 4.97 innings per start, exposing the Boston bullpen early. However, Boston's bullpen is elite with a 2.90 season relief ERA, causing a 0.75-run reduction to the Marlins' projected runs. This is a series opener, with both teams entering on recent winning streaks. The Boston Red Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 games, including a 5-run winning effort in their last outing. The Miami Marlins are 5-5 in their last 10, also coming off a 6-run victory. Both offenses have been fortunate on balls in play: Boston with a .299 BABIP (model subtracts 0.13 runs) and Miami with a .298 BABIP (model subtracts 0.11 runs). There are no notable park or weather conditions impacting this game. How the model decided: The biggest factor favoring Boston Red Sox is its 2.90 bullpen ERA, a better-than-average run-prevention mark that also tops Miami Marlins's 3.92 mark. Lean: Boston Red Sox ML (-131)

First Five Innings: Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels (F5 UNDER)

The F5 total in the Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels matchup is an area of significant divergence. Our model projects a combined 3.11 runs through the first five innings, notably lower than the market's implied 4.21 runs, creating a strong lean toward the F5 UNDER. Cleveland starter Parker Messick has a blended F5-only ERA of 2.29, reflecting his strong performance early in games. Los Angeles starter George Klassen, despite a smaller sample size, has a blended F5-only ERA of 4.25, indicating more vulnerability. Furthermore, the Angels' offense has been lucky on balls in play with a high BABIP, leading our model to regress their offense down by 0.11 runs, while the Guardians' offense is due for positive regression, adding 0.12 runs. The park multiplier of 0.930 also slightly suppresses scoring in this matchup. Lean: F5 UNDER 4.0 total

Batter Prop: Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 Total Bases

Our model is flagging Brandon Nimmo's Total Bases Over 1.5 prop in the Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox game as a sharp play. The consensus price on this OVER moved from +131 to +122, a shift of +1.8 probability points toward the OVER since opening. This kind of aggressive line movement across books historically signals smart money entering the market. While we don't project specific individual statistics, this sharp action often indicates a hidden edge or an overlooked factor favoring the outcome. Lean: Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 Total Bases (+122)

How the model decided

Today's significant divergences from market consensus were primarily driven by pitcher performance metrics, bullpen strength, and offensive BABIP regression. The San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates game saw the largest run-edge shift due to the Padres' superior bullpen and the positive regression on their unlucky offense. In the Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners game, Zack Wheeler's strong contact suppression and the Mariners' weaker bullpen were influential. Additionally, the F5 UNDER in the Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels matchup was heavily influenced by the starting pitchers' F5-specific ERAs and offensive BABIP corrections. One of our active SharpSide systems, "Favorite coming off a blowout win (margin ≥ 5)" with a historical hit rate of 58.2%, also fired on the San Diego Padres today, adding conviction to that pick. The model also considered advanced Sabermetric data, systems trends, and other analytics.

How to read this

This analysis reflects the SharpSide model's projections compared to current market consensus. These are statistical probabilities and not financial advice.

Projections update after publish. This brief is locked in at the 11:30 am ET refresh, but the model keeps recalculating all day as lineups are posted, weather shifts, pitching changes are announced, and lines move — a side or total highlighted here can flip before first pitch. Always confirm the current number on the live projections page (which locks 30 minutes before each game's first pitch) before placing a bet.