MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for August 23, 2026 | SharpSide

The Sunday 15-game MLB slate presents a few compelling discrepancies between SharpSide's predictive model and market consensus, indicating potential value. The largest single divergence today is in the Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals matchup, where our model sees a 1.9-run shift toward the Detroit Tigers compared to the market. This brief will refresh at 11:30 am Eastern with updated analytics, weather factors, pitching changes, and line movement, so these featured matchups may shift. Today's Best Bet is highlighted immediately below.

Today's Best Bet: Boston Red Sox ML

Today's Best Bet represents the single game and line SharpSide has the highest confidence in. Our model projects the Boston Red Sox to win their game against the San Francisco Giants by a moderate margin of 1.1 runs (model score 3.2–4.3). This predicted outcome is roughly in line with the market's implied margin, making this a conviction play on a likely winner rather than an edge play on a mispriced line. While not a massive divergence from consensus, it is the game the model is most sure about the ultimate winner. Best Bet: Boston Red Sox ML (-221)

Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals

The SharpSide model projects the Detroit Tigers to win this afternoon's contest 4.2–4.0, a significant shift from the market consensus favoring the Kansas City Royals 3.4–5.1. This represents a 1.9-run advantage for the Detroit Tigers in our model's projected margin compared to the market. On the mound, the Tigers are sending a genuine rookie to the mound for his MLB debut, who obviously has no established MLB track record. He will face Daniel Lynch IV for the Royals, who carries a 2.83 ERA, 3.53 FIP, and a 0.294 xwOBA-against over 54.0 innings pitched, indicating solid performance with weak contact allowed. However, Lynch is expected to be on a short leash, averaging just 2.67 innings over his last three starts, which means the Kansas City bullpen will bear the brunt of the workload. The Royals' relief corps has a 5.18 season ERA, significantly worse than the league average of 4.10, and shows a fatigue index of 0.11, suggesting a potentially stressed unit. Conversely, the Tigers' bullpen boasts a 3.78 ERA, better than the league average, and a -0.13 fatigue index, indicating relative freshness. The Tigers have also been unlucky on balls in play this season with a .286 BABIP, which our model regresses upward by 0.06 runs, pushing their offensive projection higher and leaning the side toward Detroit. Meanwhile, the Royals sit at a neutral .288 BABIP. The series has seen the Royals take the first two games in Kansas City, winning 5-2 and 3-1, though the Tigers enter today's rubber match struggling with a 2-8 record over their last 10, while the Royals are hot at 8-2. The model sees value on the Tigers today due to the market's overestimation of the Royals' pitching depth, particularly with Lynch's short expected outing exposing a subpar Royals bullpen. Regression on Detroit's unlucky BABIP also boosts their offensive outlook, while the Tigers' more rested and effective bullpen is a key factor. The largest driver of this lean is the significant bullpen disparity, especially given Lynch's projected short workload. Lean: Detroit Tigers ML (-107)

New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox

The SharpSide model projects the Chicago White Sox to win today's game 3.9–3.6 against the New York Mets, while market consensus favors the Mets 4.5–3.5. This translates to the model being 1.2 runs more favorable to the Chicago White Sox than the market. Nolan McLean takes the mound for the Mets, sporting a 3.34 ERA and a 3.61 FIP over 142.7 innings, coupled with a solid 0.95 HR/9 and 10.22 K/9, indicating effective pitching with good strikeout rates and strong home run suppression. For the White Sox, Sean Newcomb is listed as an opener, having averaged just 2.11 innings over his last three starts and expected to pitch around 1.2 innings. This effectively makes it a bullpen game for Chicago. Newcomb's role as an opener places significant strain on the Chicago White Sox bullpen, which holds a respectable 3.79 season relief ERA, but carries a fatigue index of 0.16 and a model run nudge of -0.36, indicating potential vulnerability. The Mets' bullpen is also strong with a 3.70 ERA and a -0.06 fatigue index. Both offenses have experienced some bad luck on balls in play this season; the Mets' .278 BABIP leads to a +0.16 run regression upward for their offense, while the White Sox's .284 BABIP results in a +0.09 run regression. The series is tied at one game apiece, with the White Sox taking game one 6-4 and the Mets responding with a 10-5 victory in game two. The Mets are 6-4 in their last 10, while the White Sox are 5-5. The model leans toward the White Sox primarily due to the market's overvaluation of the Mets' offense, which, despite McLean's quality, benefits from a significant BABIP regression upwards. While Newcomb is an opener, the White Sox bullpen is still projected as above-average, and their own offensive regression helps their side. The largest driver pushing this lean toward the White Sox is the significant offensive regression applied to both teams, particularly Chicago's. Lean: Chicago White Sox ML (-102)

Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners

The SharpSide model projects the Chicago Cubs to win 4.0–3.6 against the Seattle Mariners, aligning with the market's projected winner, also the Chicago Cubs (4.2–3.3). The model, however, sees a tighter game, being 0.5 runs more favorable to the Seattle Mariners than the market implies. Value fill — the slate produced few genuine model-vs-market divergences today, so this is our projected winner at the best available price rather than a divergence play. Lower conviction than a full edge lean. Shota Imanaga starts for the Cubs, carrying a 3.77 ERA, 4.54 FIP, and a 1.82 HR/9 over 143.3 innings. These underlying metrics suggest he has been prone to giving up home runs, pushing the Mariners' run projection slightly higher. Bryce Miller starts for the Mariners, with a 3.71 ERA, 3.95 FIP, and a 1.51 HR/9 over 89.7 innings, suggesting slightly better command and home run suppression than Imanaga. Both starters average over 5.6 innings per start, so bullpens will play a more traditional role. The Chicago Cubs bullpen has a 3.86 season relief ERA, better than the league average, with a -0.09 fatigue index. The Seattle Mariners bullpen sits at the league average 4.20 ERA, with a 0.16 fatigue index and a model run nudge of -0.32, indicating some potential for struggles. The Cubs offense will be without core hitter Dansby Swanson tonight, which docks their projection by approximately 0.09 runs. The Cubs' offense has experienced neutral BABIP luck with a .292 BABIP. The Mariners, conversely, have been unlucky on balls in play with a .274 BABIP, leading to a +0.20 run regression for their offense, which pushes their side up and the total up. The series has seen the Mariners take the first two games at home by close margins, winning 6-5 and 5-4. In terms of recent form, the Cubs are 4-6 over their last 10 games, while the Mariners are 6-4. The model leans toward the Cubs as the projected winner, despite the lack of a significant market divergence. This is primarily driven by the Mariners' unlucky BABIP, which suggests their offense should perform better going forward, and the absence of Dansby Swanson from the Cubs lineup. The Cubs’ slightly better bullpen also contributes. The largest driver of this lean, in spite of the market's agreement on the winner, is the Seattle Mariners' substantial BABIP regression. Lean: Chicago Cubs ML (-108)

First Five Innings: Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies (F5 UNDER)

The F5 model projects a total of 3.72 runs for the first five innings of the Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies game, significantly below the market-implied F5 total of 5.72 runs. Foster Griffin, starting for the Guardians, shows a solid F5-only ERA of 3.21, blended to 3.30. Tomoyuki Sugano, pitching for the Rockies, has an F5-only ERA of 4.40, blended to 4.48, indicating he's the weaker of the two early on. The Guardians offense has been unlucky on balls in play, resulting in a +0.13 run regression, while the Rockies have been lucky, leading to a -0.22 run regression. Despite this, the large gap between the model's F5 total and the market's implied total makes the Under an attractive play, driven by both starting pitchers' early-game form and the park factor (0.937) reducing overall run environment. Lean: F5 UNDER 5.5 total

How the model decided

Today's sharper leans are driven by a combination of bullpen quality, offensive BABIP regression, and starter workload management. In the Tigers-Royals game, the Royals' weak bullpen was a primary factor when combined with Daniel Lynch's expected short outing. For the Mets-White Sox matchup, the model's regression on both teams' unlucky BABIPs, particularly for Chicago, was a significant mover. The model also considered advanced Sabermetric data, systems trends, and other analytics.

How to read this

This content reflects SharpSide's proprietary model's projections and identified divergences from market consensus, not financial advice. All decisions should be based on individual risk assessment.

Projections update after publish. This brief is locked in at the 11:30 am ET refresh, but the model keeps recalculating all day as lineups are posted, weather shifts, pitching changes are announced, and lines move — a side or total highlighted here can flip before first pitch. Always confirm the current number on the live projections page (which locks 30 minutes before each game's first pitch) before placing a bet.