MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for August 13, 2026 | SharpSide

Today's 9-game MLB slate presents several divergences from market consensus, highlighted by our model. The largest single run-edge is found in the Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers matchup, where the model sees an F5 Under with a -1.64 run edge compared to the market. We are also featuring deep dives into Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers and Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins. This brief refreshes at 11:30 am Eastern based on new analytics, weather factors, pitching changes, and line movement, so the featured matchups may update between this morning publish and the refresh. Today's Best Bet is highlighted immediately after this lede.

Today's Best Bet: New York Yankees ML

Today's Best Bet is the single game and line SharpSide has the highest confidence in today: the New York Yankees ML (-141) against the Seattle Mariners. Our model projects the New York Yankees to win by a moderate margin of 1.1 runs (3.1–4.2), which is roughly in line with the market's implied margin. This is designated as a conviction play, not necessarily an edge play, as our model is most sure of the outcome in this matchup. We are not identifying a significant pricing discrepancy, but rather a strong likelihood of the Yankees securing a victory. Best Bet: New York Yankees ML (-141)

Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers

The SharpSide model projects the Milwaukee Brewers to win this contest 4.6–3.7, representing a substantial 1.8-run shift in favor of Milwaukee compared to the market consensus, which favors Los Angeles 4.7–3.8. Tonight’s pitching matchup features Milwaukee's Shane Drohan, who holds a strong 3.34 FIP and limits hard contact with a 0.289 xwOBA-against, against Los Angeles’s Roki Sasaki, who registers a 4.95 FIP and a high 1.80 HR/9, indicating vulnerability to opposing power. Both teams have seen some batting luck on balls in play this season; the Brewers’ 0.305 BABIP and the Dodgers’ 0.301 BABIP are both above the league average, prompting our model to regress both offenses downward by 0.24 runs and 0.18 runs respectively. In the bullpen, Milwaukee holds an advantage with a 3.52 season relief ERA compared to Los Angeles's 4.02, while the Dodgers' bullpen carries a notable -0.27 model run nudge, suggesting underlying performance concerns. This is the opener of a four-game series. The Brewers enter with an middling 5-5 record over their last 10 games, while the Dodgers are struggling at 3-7 in their last 10. There are no notable park or weather conditions impacting this game. How the model decided: Shane Drohan's strong underlying pitching metrics, specifically his FIP and xwOBA-against, were a significant factor in suppressing the Dodgers' offensive projection. The Dodgers' recent 3-7 form and the bullpen's negative run nudge also contributed to a less favorable outlook for Los Angeles. The largest driver was the comparative strength of Shane Drohan against Roki Sasaki's elevated FIP and HR/9, which significantly boosted the Brewers' win probability. Lean: Milwaukee Brewers ML (+121)

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins

The SharpSide model shows a strong lean toward the Miami Marlins in this matchup, projecting a 4.3–3.6 victory for the home team, a significant 1.6-run margin more favorable to Miami than the market's consensus of a 4.5–3.5 Pirates win. Miami's Tyler Phillips takes the mound with a 3.47 ERA, but his 4.60 FIP and 0.339 xwOBA-against suggest he allows more hard contact than his ERA implies, which bodes well for the Pirates' offense. Pittsburgh counters with Braxton Ashcraft, who boasts a solid 3.64 FIP and a sharp 0.287 xwOBA-against, indicating his ability to limit quality contact. Phillips averages only 4.55 innings per start, exposing the Marlins' bullpen earlier than average; however, Miami's bullpen has a stronger 3.80 season relief ERA compared to Pittsburgh's 4.21, mitigating some of the risk. Both offenses have been lucky on balls in play this season, with the Pirates' 0.316 BABIP leading to a 0.42-run regression, and the Marlins' 0.299 BABIP prompting a 0.13-run downward adjustment. Miami is missing core hitter Kyle Stowers, which costs their projection approximately 0.09 runs. Heading into the final game of this three-game series, the Marlins have dominated, winning game one 2-0 and game two 8-2. This is reflected in their recent form, as Miami is 6-4 in their last 10, while Pittsburgh is struggling at 2-8. The model also identified a system activation here: "Favorite coming off a blowout win (margin ≥ 5)" historically hits at 58.2%, a 1.4 percentage point lift over the baseline. There are no notable park or weather conditions for this game. How the model decided: Braxton Ashcraft's strong FIP and xwOBA-against against a weakened Marlins lineup (missing Kyle Stowers) were key in suppressing Miami's projected runs. However, the Pirates' struggling recent form (2-8) and significant BABIP regression (0.42 runs subtracted) combined with Miami's recent series dominance and stronger bullpen were larger drivers pushing the lean toward the Marlins. The largest driver was the Pirates' struggling recent form and the substantial BABIP regression on their offense. Lean: Miami Marlins ML (+109)

Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers

The SharpSide model identifies a significant market divergence in this matchup, projecting the Detroit Tigers to win 3.7–3.6. This is a 1.0-run shift in favor of Detroit compared to the market, which favors the Guardians 4.7–3.8. Cleveland sends Parker Messick to the mound, who has been excellent with a 2.57 ERA, a 3.18 FIP, and a low 0.273 xwOBA-against, indicating he consistently limits quality contact. Detroit counters with Keider Montero, who owns a 3.38 ERA but a less impressive 3.87 FIP and a lower 6.33 K/9, suggesting he's more prone to contact. The Guardians’ offense has been unlucky on balls in play, with a 0.280 BABIP leading the model to add 0.13 runs to their projection. The Tigers' offense, however, shows neutral BABIP luck. Detroit is missing core hitter Riley Greene, resulting in an approximate 0.18-run reduction in their projected scoring. This is the rubber match of a three-game series, with the Tigers taking game one 6-4 and the Guardians responding with a 6-4 win in game two. Detroit enters this game strong, with a 7-3 record over their last 10 outings, while Cleveland is struggling at 3-7. Neither bullpen is significantly fatigued, and no park or weather conditions are expected to influence scoring. How the model decided: Despite Parker Messick's strong individual metrics, the Guardians' struggling recent form (3-7) and the Tigers' strong 7-3 run were significant counterweights. The model also favored Detroit due to their home-field advantage and the Guardians' only minor positive BABIP regression. The largest driver pushing the lean towards the Tigers was their superior recent form contrasted with Cleveland's struggles. Lean: Detroit Tigers ML (+104)

First Five Innings: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers (F5 UNDER)

For the Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers matchup, our model sees a substantial edge on the First Five Innings total, projecting a mere 2.78 runs compared to the market's implied 4.42 runs, creating a -1.64 run edge for the F5 Under. Cleveland's Parker Messick, with an F5-only ERA blended to 2.32, is expected to be highly effective through the early frames. Detroit's Keider Montero's F5-only ERA, blended to 3.52, also points to a relatively low-scoring initial period. The Guardians' offense, despite being regressed up by 0.13 runs due to past unlucky BABIP, faces a pitcher who should limit damage early. The park multiplier of 0.930 further suppresses runs in Detroit, contributing to the low F5 projection. Lean: F5 UNDER 4.0 total

How the model decided

Today's biggest divergences from market consensus were primarily driven by a combination of starter quality, recent team form, and BABIP luck regression. In the Milwaukee-Dodgers game, the model's lean toward Milwaukee was heavily influenced by Shane Drohan's superior FIP and xwOBA-against compared to Roki Sasaki, alongside the Dodgers' recent struggles and bullpen concerns. For Pittsburgh-Miami, the Marlins' strong series performance and the Pirates' significant BABIP regression, which subtracted 0.42 runs from their projection, were key factors. This game also saw an activation of our "Favorite coming off a blowout win (margin ≥ 5)" system, which shows a historical hit rate of 58.2%. The Cleveland-Detroit lean for the Tigers was largely driven by Detroit's superior recent form (7-3) against Cleveland's struggling streak (3-7), even with strong individual pitching from Messick. The model also considered advanced Sabermetric data, systems trends, and other analytics.

How to read this

These projections represent SharpSide's quantitative model's view relative to current market pricing. They are not financial advice, but rather analytical insights designed to inform your betting decisions.

Projections update after publish. This brief is locked in at the 11:30 am ET refresh, but the model keeps recalculating all day as lineups are posted, weather shifts, pitching changes are announced, and lines move — a side or total highlighted here can flip before first pitch. Always confirm the current number on the live projections page (which locks 30 minutes before each game's first pitch) before placing a bet.