MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for August 10, 2026 | SharpSide

SharpSideBaseball identifies a 10-game Monday slate ripe with analytical divergence. Our models forecast market mispricings across tonight's matchups, most notably in the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres contest, where the SharpSide model sees San Diego as 1.0 runs more favorable than market consensus. We refresh this brief at 11:30 am Eastern, incorporating new analytics, weather factors, pitching changes, and line movement, so featured matchups may update. Our highest-confidence pick is highlighted immediately below.

Today's Best Bet: Boston Red Sox ML

Today's Best Bet represents the single game and line SharpSide has the highest confidence in tonight. We project the Boston Red Sox to defeat the Toronto Blue Jays by a significant margin, forecasting a 4.8–3.4 final score, a 1.4-run victory. This projected margin is 0.5 runs stronger than the market's implied margin. This selection is a conviction play where our model's predicted outcome is most decisive, even though the market broadly agrees on the favorite. Best Bet: Boston Red Sox ML (-172)

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres

The SharpSide model projects a 3.6–3.7 final score with the San Diego Padres winning, a notable divergence from the market consensus of 4.2–3.3 favoring the Milwaukee Brewers. This translates to the model viewing San Diego as 1.0 runs more favorable than the market. San Diego's starter Casey Mize enters this outing with an excellent 2.81 FIP, indicating strong underlying pitching performance, and a low 0.60 HR/9, suggesting exceptional home run suppression. Conversely, Milwaukee's Logan Henderson brings a solid 3.09 FIP, but a higher 1.26 HR/9, which is slightly above the league average. Both bullpens are performing well below the league average ERA of 4.10, with Milwaukee's relief corps at 3.49 and San Diego's at 3.65. However, Milwaukee's bullpen carries a higher fatigue index of 0.19 compared to San Diego's -0.06, which pushes the model to nudge runs slightly upward for the Brewers' opponents. San Diego's offense has also been unlucky on balls in play, evidenced by their .280 BABIP (below the .290 league average), leading the model to regress their scoring projection upward by 0.14 runs. No notable park or weather conditions are expected for this series opener. Both teams enter this contest in strong recent form, with the Brewers holding a 7-3 record in their last 10 games, and the Padres matching that with a 7-3 record. How the model decided: San Diego's pitching metrics, particularly Casey Mize's low HR/9, were significant factors. The model also noted San Diego's .280 BABIP, which suggests they are due for positive offensive regression, adding runs to their projection. Conversely, Milwaukee's .307 BABIP indicates some luck on balls in play, leading to a downward regression of their offensive output. The largest driver for the lean toward San Diego was the regression of Milwaukee's offense due to their lucky BABIP. Lean: San Diego Padres ML (-104)

Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels

The SharpSide model projects a 4.3–4.0 final score with the Texas Rangers winning, but sees the game as tighter than the market consensus of 4.7–3.8, which also favors the Rangers. Our model is 0.6 runs more favorable to the Los Angeles Angels than the market in this matchup. Texas sends MacKenzie Gore to the mound, who has a 3.76 FIP and a .302 xwOBA-against, indicating he allows slightly better than average contact quality. Reid Detmers pitches for Los Angeles, featuring a stronger 3.47 FIP and a .289 xwOBA-against, suggesting he suppresses hard contact more effectively. Both starters have logged significant innings this season, with Gore averaging 5.61 IP/start and Detmers averaging 5.55 IP/start. Both bullpens are performing worse than the league average of 4.10, with the Rangers' bullpen at 4.26 ERA and the Angels' at 4.40 ERA, and both show minor fatigue. Neither team's offense is due for significant BABIP regression, as the Rangers' .293 BABIP and the Angels' .296 BABIP are both close to the league average, prompting slight downward adjustments to their respective run projections. This marks the opener of a four-game series. The Rangers have struggled recently with a 4-6 record in their last 10 games, while the Angels have fared slightly worse at 3-7 over the same span. There are no notable park or weather conditions. How the model decided: The model’s total edge of -0.2 runs versus the market is primarily driven by the strength of Reid Detmers' underlying pitching metrics, particularly his 3.47 FIP and .289 xwOBA-against, which pushes down the run projection for the Texas offense. The downward regression on both teams' offenses due to their slightly lucky BABIPs also contributed to the lower total. The largest mover for the UNDER lean is the overall strength of the starting pitching matchup, suppressing offensive output for both sides. Lean: UNDER 8.5 total (-115)

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

The SharpSide model projects a 3.9–4.2 final score with the Atlanta Braves winning, indicating a total run projection that is 0.4 runs lower than the market consensus. The model is also 0.6 runs more favorable to the New York Mets than the market's implied margin. New York's starter Christian Scott has been effective with a 3.37 FIP and a solid 11.14 K/9 rate. However, Scott averages only 4.89 innings per start, significantly exposing the Mets' bullpen. Atlanta counters with Bryce Elder, who has a 4.44 FIP and a 1.35 HR/9, both of which are worse than league average and suggest potential for opposing offense. Both bullpens are performing better than the league average of 4.10, with the Mets at 3.74 ERA and the Braves at 3.46 ERA, with both showing low fatigue. The Mets' offense has been unlucky on balls in play this season with a .278 BABIP, prompting the model to add 0.16 runs to their projected score. Similarly, the Braves, with a .286 BABIP, are also due for a slight offensive regression upwards, with the model adding 0.06 runs. This is the series opener of a three-game set. The Mets are coming off a middling 6-4 run in their last 10 games, winning their last outing with 11 runs. The Braves are strong hotter, with an 8-2 record in their last 10 games, securing a 2-run victory in their last contest. No notable park or weather conditions are expected. How the model decided: The model’s lean toward the UNDER is primarily influenced by the stronger bullpen performance from both teams and the relatively high FIP and HR/9 of Bryce Elder, which implies a lower quality of contact allowed than his ERA suggests. The short average outing of Christian Scott exposes the Mets' capable bullpen, which also dampens projected runs. The largest driver for the UNDER lean is Elder's FIP and HR/9. Lean: UNDER 8.5 total (-105)

First Five Innings: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves (F5 UNDER)

For the New York Mets at Atlanta Braves matchup, our Bayesian starter model projects a low First Five Innings total of 3.43 runs, significantly lower than the market's implied F5 total of 4.42 runs. This edge of -0.99 runs points directly to the F5 UNDER. Mets starter Christian Scott's F5-only ERA, blended at 3.31, is strong, while Braves starter Bryce Elder's blended F5-only ERA stands at 3.90. Despite some offensive regression upward for both teams due to their unlucky BABIPs (Mets +0.16 runs, Braves +0.06 runs), the pitching matchup's strength in the early frames, amplified by a park multiplier of 0.930, indicates a lower-scoring first half of the game. Lean: F5 UNDER 8.5 total

Batter Prop: Wade Meckler Over 0.5 Total Bases

The Total Bases Over 0.5 market for Wade Meckler in the Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels game has seen significant sharp line movement, with the price shifting from -123 to -134. This represents a substantial increase of 2.1 probability-points toward the OVER since opening. Such aggressive cross-book consensus movement historically flags smart money action. This indicates a high conviction from sharp bettors that Meckler will record at least one total base tonight. Lean: Wade Meckler Over 0.5 Total Bases (-134)

How the model decided

Today's largest divergences from market consensus were primarily driven by a combination of pitcher underlying metrics, particularly FIP and xwOBA-against, and BABIP regression. In the Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres game, the model's differing view was heavily influenced by San Diego's unlucky BABIP, suggesting an imminent offensive rebound, paired with the strong underlying metrics of Casey Mize compared to his opponent. For the Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels and New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves totals, the model identified strong pitching performances relative to market expectations, often indicated by FIP and xwOBA-against, as key factors in suppressing projected run totals. The model also considered advanced Sabermetric data, systems trends, and other analytics.

How to read this

This analysis reflects SharpSideBaseball's quantitative model's view relative to market consensus. It is provided for informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice.

Projections update after publish. This brief is locked in at the 11:30 am ET refresh, but the model keeps recalculating all day as lineups are posted, weather shifts, pitching changes are announced, and lines move — a side or total highlighted here can flip before first pitch. Always confirm the current number on the live projections page (which locks 30 minutes before each game's first pitch) before placing a bet.