MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for August 5, 2026 | SharpSide

Today's 15-game MLB slate presents several divergences from market consensus, with our model indicating a significant -0.9 run total edge in the Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox matchup. We are also highlighting the Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves and New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians games for today. This brief refreshes at 11:30 am Eastern based on new analytics, weather factors, pitching changes, and line movement, so featured matchups may update. Our Today's Best Bet is highlighted immediately below.

Today's Best Bet: Houston Astros ML

Today's Best Bet is the single game and line SharpSide has the highest confidence in: the Houston Astros Moneyline (-178) against the Toronto Blue Jays. Our model projects the Houston Astros to win by a clear 1.3 runs, with a score of 3.5–4.8. This projected margin is roughly in line with the market's implied odds, indicating this is a conviction play where our model's outcome is most decisive, rather than a significant market edge. Even without a substantial market divergence, this game represents the highest probability of a correct call according to our analytics. Best Bet: Houston Astros ML (-178)

Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox

Our model identifies a significant -0.9 run total edge against the market consensus for the Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox game, leading us to lean Under 8.5 total runs. Chicago's Sean Burke, with a strong 3.29 FIP and an impressive 0.288 xwOBA-against, meaning he allows weak contact, faces Boston's Sonny Gray, who boasts a 2.93 ERA and a 0.300 xwOBA-against, indicating similar effectiveness in limiting quality contact. The Red Sox dominated Game 1 of this series, winning 14-2, as they look to continue their middling 5-5 form over their last 10 games, while the White Sox enter at an middling 5-5. The White Sox bullpen has a 3.83 season relief ERA (below league average of 4.20) and shows little fatigue, contributing to a -0.75 run nudge from our model. Boston's bullpen is even stronger, with a 2.92 season relief ERA and a -0.36 run nudge, suggesting these relief corps are well-equipped to keep runs off the board. No notable park or weather conditions are expected. How the model decided: The combined strength of both starting pitchers, particularly Sean Burke's 0.288 xwOBA-against and Sonny Gray's 2.93 ERA, significantly pushed down the projected total. This was further reinforced by both bullpens performing well below the league average in relief ERA. Lastly, the Boston Red Sox's lucky 0.294 BABIP, which our model regresses by subtracting 0.06 runs from their offense, was a notable factor, with the combined bullpen strength being the largest mover towards the Under. Lean: UNDER 8.5 total (-114)

Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves

The SharpSide model projects a -0.4 run total edge versus the market in the Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves game, leading us to lean Under 8.5 total runs. Miami sends Eury Pérez to the mound, who holds a 3.44 ERA and a solid 0.302 xwOBA-against, indicating he generally limits opposing hitters to weak contact. He will be opposed by Atlanta's Bryce Elder, with a 3.84 ERA and a 0.309 xwOBA-against. Pérez averages 6.00 IP per start, while Elder averages 5.30 IP per start, suggesting a slightly earlier call to the bullpen for the Braves. Atlanta took Game 1 of this series 4-2, building on their strong 7-3 record in their last 10 outings, while Miami has been middling at 6-4. Both bullpens are performing better than league average, with the Marlins at a 3.88 season relief ERA and the Braves at 3.44, both contributing a -0.39 run nudge from the model, indicating their effectiveness. There are no notable park or weather conditions to consider. How the model decided: The strong performance metrics of both starting pitchers, specifically Eury Pérez's 0.302 xwOBA-against and Bryce Elder's 0.309 xwOBA-against, were key in depressing the total run projection. The effective bullpens for both Miami and Atlanta, each with a -0.39 run nudge, further solidified the lean towards the Under. The Miami Marlins' lucky 0.298 BABIP, which leads to a downward regression of 0.11 runs from their offense, was the largest factor pushing the total down. Lean: UNDER 8.5 total (-103)

New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians

Mild-conviction lean — our model has slightly more edge on New York Mets than consensus, not a full divergence from the market. We are leaning New York Mets ML (-110) in their matchup against the Cleveland Guardians. The Mets will start Christian Scott, who has posted a strong 2.99 ERA and an impressive 0.91 HR/9 over 69.3 innings, indicating excellent home run suppression. He faces Tanner Bibee for the Guardians, who has a 3.81 ERA but a higher 1.36 HR/9 and a 0.323 xwOBA-against, suggesting he allows harder contact than Scott. Scott's average of 4.88 IP per start is short, which will expose the Mets' bullpen earlier in the game. However, the Mets' bullpen boasts a solid 3.78 season relief ERA, better than the league average of 4.20, and a slight -0.19 run nudge from our model. The Guardians' bullpen also performs better than average with a 3.86 season relief ERA. The Mets won Game 1 of this series 6-2, and both teams have been average recently, with the Mets at 5-5 and the Guardians struggling at 3-7 over their last 10 games. No park or weather factors are noted. How the model decided: Christian Scott's superior home run suppression (0.91 HR/9) compared to Tanner Bibee's 1.36 HR/9 was a primary driver in favoring the Mets. Both teams' offenses have been unlucky on balls in play, with the Mets' 0.274 BABIP leading to a significant +0.21 run addition to their projection and the Guardians' 0.278 BABIP adding +0.15 runs. Scott's shorter average outing also brings the Mets' capable bullpen into play earlier, and the Mets' offensive regression up from their unlucky BABIP was the largest mover for this side lean. Lean: New York Mets ML (-110)

First Five Innings: Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies (F5 UNDER)

Our model shows a substantial -2.72 run edge on the First Five Innings total for the Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies game. Tampa Bay's Nick Martinez enters with a blended F5-only ERA of 2.66, reflecting solid early-game performance, while Colorado's Tomoyuki Sugano has a blended F5-only ERA of 4.20. The model's projected F5 total is 3.26 runs, significantly lower than the market's implied 5.98 runs. This game is being played in Colorado, which typically favors offense, but our model adjusts for this with a 0.930 park multiplier. Both offenses have experienced some lucky BABIP, with the Rays having 0.298 and the Rockies 0.295, leading to a downward regression of 0.15 and 0.28 runs from their respective projections. These offensive regressions further contribute to the lower F5 total. Lean: F5 UNDER 5.5 total

Batter Prop: Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 Total Bases

Sharp line movement has been observed on Hunter Goodman's Total Bases Over 1.5 market in the Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies game. The consensus price on this OVER has shifted from -106 to -114, representing a +1.8 probability-point move toward the OVER since opening. Historically, such aggressive cross-book movement flags sharp money entering the market. This indicates professional bettors are confident that Goodman will exceed 1.5 total bases in today's contest. Lean: Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-114)

How the model decided

Today's projections were significantly influenced by pitcher effectiveness metrics and BABIP regression. The low xwOBA-against numbers for Sean Burke and Sonny Gray were key in driving down the total for the Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox game. In the Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves matchup, the combined strong bullpen ERAs and the Marlins' lucky BABIP, which subtracts runs from their offensive projection, were primary factors for the Under. For the New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians game, Christian Scott's strong HR/9 and the Mets' significant positive BABIP regression were critical in the model favoring their moneyline. The model also considered advanced Sabermetric data, systems trends, and other analytics.

How to read this

This analysis represents our model's current view of today's MLB slate compared to the market. These are not financial recommendations.

Projections update after publish. This brief is locked in at the 11:30 am ET refresh, but the model keeps recalculating all day as lineups are posted, weather shifts, pitching changes are announced, and lines move — a side or total highlighted here can flip before first pitch. Always confirm the current number on the live projections page (which locks 30 minutes before each game's first pitch) before placing a bet.