MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for August 4, 2026 | SharpSide

Today's 15-game MLB slate presents several intriguing matchups, with the SharpSide model identifying significant deviations from market consensus. Our largest run-edge of the day, an -0.8 run difference on the total, is found in the Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox game. We also highlight the New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians and Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers contests. This brief reflects the morning's analytics, but SharpSide refreshes at 11:30 am Eastern, incorporating new weather factors, pitching changes, and line movement, so featured matchups may update. Immediately following this lede, you will find SharpSide's highest-confidence play for today.

Today's Best Bet: Baltimore Orioles ML

SharpSide projects the Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles matchup as our highest-confidence play of the day, favoring the Baltimore Orioles on the moneyline at -145. Our model projects the Orioles to win by a substantial 1.4 runs (3.7–5.1), a margin 0.5 runs stronger than the market's implied outcome. While this pick may not represent the largest market discrepancy, it signifies where our model's projected outcome is most decisive, with both market and model agreeing on the Orioles as the clear favorite. This is a conviction play, backed by the model's robust analysis of tonight's pitching, offensive matchups, and underlying metrics. Best Bet: Baltimore Orioles ML (-145)

Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox

Tonight's series opener at Fenway Park features Chicago White Sox starter Davis Martin against Boston Red Sox starter Patrick Sandoval. Martin enters with strong underlying metrics, including a 3.11 FIP, indicating excellent strikeout, walk, and home run rates independent of defense, and a very low 0.54 HR/9, suggesting he suppresses home runs effectively. Sandoval, despite a respectable 3.32 ERA, shows less impressive peripherals in a small 19.0 IP sample, with a 4.15 FIP that is slightly above league average and a 1.42 HR/9 indicating a susceptibility to the long ball. SharpSide's model identifies a -0.8 run total edge against the market consensus for this game, with a -1.4 run margin edge favoring Boston. Both offenses show recent performance trends. The White Sox, entering with a 5-5 record in their last 10 games, won their most recent outing scoring 9 runs. The Red Sox are in strong form at 5-5 over their last 10, also winning their last game scoring 8 runs. The model notes the White Sox have experienced some bad luck on balls in play, with a .285 BABIP against a league average of .290, prompting a regression that adds 0.08 runs to their offensive projection. Conversely, the Red Sox's .293 BABIP suggests slight good luck, leading to a minor subtraction of 0.04 runs from their offense. Both starting pitchers have short average outings (Martin 4.93 IP/start, Sandoval 4.75 IP/start), ensuring significant bullpen exposure. The Red Sox bullpen boasts a strong 2.95 season relief ERA, well below the league average of 4.10, and a fresh fatigue index of -0.12, providing a strong backend. The White Sox bullpen is also above average with a 3.78 ERA. Park and weather conditions are neutral tonight. How the model decided: Martin's strong 0.54 HR/9 and the Red Sox's excellent 2.95 bullpen ERA significantly suppressed projected runs for their respective opposing offenses, pushing the total down. The model's regression on the Red Sox's slightly lucky BABIP further reduced their offensive projection. The limited workload of both starting pitchers placed greater emphasis on these bullpen strengths. The strongest driver of our lean is Davis Martin's impressive ability to limit home runs, driving the total lower. Lean: UNDER 8.5 total (-113)

New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians

The New York Mets and Cleveland Guardians begin a three-game series tonight, with Sean Manaea starting for the Mets against Joey Cantillo for the Guardians. Manaea holds a 4.33 FIP and a 1.28 HR/9, both slightly above league averages of 4.10 and 1.20, respectively, indicating some vulnerability in limiting home runs and overall performance. Cantillo presents a more favorable profile with a 3.88 FIP, below league average, and a 1.03 HR/9, suggesting better home run suppression. His .302 xwOBA-against also suggests he limits hard contact more effectively than Manaea's .324 xwOBA-against. SharpSide's model projects a +0.1 run total edge compared to the market, and a -0.7 run margin edge toward the Guardians. Both teams enter this series struggling for wins. The Mets are 4-6 in their last 10 games, coming off a shutout loss where they scored zero runs. The Guardians also have a poor 3-7 record in their last 10, though they did win their last game by scoring 5 runs. The model identifies significant offensive regression potential for both clubs. The Mets have a .274 BABIP, indicating they've been unlucky on balls in play and are due for an offensive bump, leading to a 0.21 run addition to their projection. The Guardians, with a .277 BABIP, are similarly unlucky, prompting a 0.17 run increase to their offense. Both bullpens are close to league average in relief ERA, with the Mets at 3.81 and the Guardians at 3.87, and both show minimal fatigue. Park and weather conditions are neutral for this contest. How the model decided: The primary factor driving this lean is the significant upward regression expected from both offenses due to their unlucky BABIPs, adding runs to both sides of the total. Sean Manaea's slightly elevated FIP and HR/9 also contribute to a higher projected run total against the Mets. These offensive adjustments, particularly the combined BABIP regression, were the largest movers towards the OVER. Lean: OVER 7.5 total (-116)

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers

The Pittsburgh Pirates continue their series against the Milwaukee Brewers tonight, with Jared Jones on the mound for the Pirates and Logan Henderson starting for the Brewers. Jones, despite a modest 3.81 ERA, has a stronger 3.48 FIP and a very good 0.271 xwOBA-against, indicating he suppresses quality contact well. Henderson, in a modest 44.0 IP sample, shows exceptional numbers with a 2.66 ERA, a stellar 2.80 FIP, and a 0.255 xwOBA-against, pointing to elite contact management and strikeout ability. SharpSide's model projects a -0.3 run total edge versus the market in this matchup. This is Game 2 of a four-game series. The Pirates took Game 1 by a score of 4-3, setting up an important contest tonight. The Pirates are 4-6 in their last 10 games, while the Brewers hold a 5-5 record over the same span. The model identifies both offenses as having benefited from good fortune on balls in play. The Pirates have a .318 BABIP, significantly higher than the .290 league average, leading to a substantial 0.45 run subtraction from their offensive projection due to expected regression. The Brewers also show a lucky .306 BABIP, which prompts a 0.26 run reduction to their offense. Jones averages 4.77 IP/start, indicating a short outing and early bullpen exposure for the Pirates. Their bullpen has a 4.31 season relief ERA, slightly above league average, and a high fatigue index of 0.29, suggesting it is taxed. The Brewers bullpen, at 3.58 ERA, is better than average, though they also show a fatigue index of 0.19. Park and weather conditions are neutral. How the model decided: Logan Henderson's elite 2.80 FIP and 0.255 xwOBA-against significantly suppressed projected runs for the Pirates, pushing the total down. The negative regression applied to both the Pirates' and Brewers' lucky BABIPs further reduced projected offensive output. The taxed Pirates bullpen, despite the short outing from Jones, did not fully offset the strong pitching metrics and offensive regression. Logan Henderson's dominant underlying pitching metrics were the largest factor driving the total lower. Lean: UNDER 7.5 total (-105)

First Five Innings: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals (F5 UNDER)

Our Bayesian starter model points to an F5 UNDER in the Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals game tonight. Twins starter Joe Ryan has an F5-only ERA of 3.75 (blended from 3.78 over 102.3 IP and 3.52 over 120.3 IP), while Royals starter Randy Dobnak shows a strong F5-only ERA of 1.97 (blended from 1.27 over 21.3 IP and 1.04 over 26.0 IP in a modest sample). The model projects a combined F5 total of 2.72 runs, a significant -2.01 run difference from the market's implied 4.73 runs. The Twins' offense has been unlucky on balls in play, resulting in a minor upward regression, but Dobnak's early-game efficiency is the primary driver. Lean: F5 UNDER 4.5 total

How the model decided

Today's sharp leans are primarily driven by advanced starter metrics and offensive BABIP regression. The Red Sox-White Sox UNDER is heavily influenced by Davis Martin's impressive home run suppression and the Red Sox's strong bullpen performance, combined with some slight BABIP regression. The Mets-Guardians OVER is largely a function of significant upward regression for both offenses, as each team has experienced bad luck on balls in play, suggesting their scoring should increase. The Pirates-Brewers UNDER is led by Logan Henderson's elite contact management metrics and negative BABIP regression for both clubs. The model also considered advanced Sabermetric data, systems trends, and other analytics.

How to read this

This analysis represents the SharpSide model's view of value against current market consensus. These are not financial recommendations. All investment decisions carry risk and should be made independently.

Projections update after publish. This brief is locked in at the 11:30 am ET refresh, but the model keeps recalculating all day as lineups are posted, weather shifts, pitching changes are announced, and lines move — a side or total highlighted here can flip before first pitch. Always confirm the current number on the live projections page (which locks 30 minutes before each game's first pitch) before placing a bet.