MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for July 31, 2026 | SharpSide

A 15-game slate on Friday provides ample opportunity for market leverage, and our model has identified several spots where consensus is misaligned. Today's most significant run-edge surfaces in the Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds game, where our projection diverges from the market by 1.3 runs. We also highlight sharp-money action on a batter prop and our highest-conviction pick of the day. This brief refreshes at 11:30 am Eastern based on new analytics, weather factors, pitching changes, and line movement, so the featured matchups may update between the morning publish and that refresh. Today's Best Bet is highlighted immediately below.

Today's Best Bet: Toronto Blue Jays ML

Today's Best Bet is the single game and line SharpSide has the highest confidence in: the Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline at -187 against the St. Louis Cardinals. Our model projects the Blue Jays to win by a decisive 1.2 runs, with a scoreline of 4.7 to 3.5. This projection aligns closely with the implied margin from the market, indicating that while there isn't a significant edge relative to consensus pricing, our model is highly convinced of this outcome. This is a conviction play, emphasizing the model's certainty rather than a large divergence from the market. Best Bet: Toronto Blue Jays ML (-187)

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds

The SharpSide model projects the Pirates and Reds to combine for 1.3 runs more than the market consensus, with a score of 5.0–3.8 (away–home). Our model's lean is toward the OVER 8.5 total, but it is critical to note that live sharp price action on this total is pointing in the opposite direction, toward the UNDER. This divergence in market sentiment reduces our conviction, making this a model-driven call against the prevailing tape. Paul Skenes starts for Pittsburgh, bringing a strong 2.71 FIP, which indicates excellent underlying pitching skill by stripping out defensive influence, and a low 0.82 HR/9, suggesting he effectively suppresses home runs. His opponent, Hunter Greene for Cincinnati, has a 3.20 FIP and a 1.25 HR/9, indicating he is more prone to hard contact and the long ball. Cincinnati enters this game missing core hitter Spencer Steer, which docks their projected offense by approximately 0.09 runs. Both bullpens are highly taxed, with Pittsburgh's 4.38 season relief ERA and 0.44 fatigue index, and Cincinnati's 4.49 season relief ERA and 0.49 fatigue index, leading to a model run nudge of +0.60 for both teams due to projected bullpen performance. Heading into the second game of this four-game series, the Reds claimed game one with a 3-2 victory. The Pirates enter this matchup struggling, with a 3-7 record over their last 10 games, while the Reds hold a middling 6-4 record. Park and weather conditions are neutral tonight, scoring a 5 with no notable factors impacting offense or defense. How the model decided: The model’s lean toward the OVER was primarily influenced by the regression on the Pirates' offense, which was projected upward by 0.45 runs due to their lucky .319 BABIP. This was compounded by both taxed bullpens, each adding 0.60 runs to the total, and Hunter Greene's 1.25 HR/9 pushing the Pirates' offense projection higher. Cincinnati's .280 BABIP also regressed upward by 0.13 runs, pushing the total higher. The largest driver pushing the total up was the Pirates' BABIP regression. Lean: OVER 8.5 total (-107)

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

The SharpSide model projects the Miami Marlins to win outright, diverging from the market consensus which favors the Mets. Our model forecasts a 4.7–4.4 score in favor of the Marlins, translating to a significant 1.2-run margin difference toward the home team relative to market. Janson Junk takes the mound for Miami with a 4.35 FIP and a 1.34 HR/9, indicating he allows a fair amount of hard contact and home runs. Facing him is Freddy Peralta for the Mets, who has a 4.46 FIP and a 1.35 HR/9, suggesting similar challenges in limiting impactful hits. Both starters average short outings, with Junk at 4.56 IP/start and Peralta at 4.77 IP/start, exposing their respective bullpens earlier than average. The Marlins bullpen, with a 3.94 season relief ERA, is rested with a low 0.01 fatigue index. Conversely, the Mets bullpen, while having a strong 3.82 season relief ERA, is taxed with a 0.22 fatigue index, implying potential for more runs allowed in later innings. The Mets are also missing core hitter Juan Soto, which deducts approximately 0.30 runs from their offensive projection. Miami's offense, despite their 3-7 recent form, sees a downward regression of 0.13 runs due to a lucky .299 BABIP. New York's offense, with a .275 BABIP, regresses upward by 0.20 runs, indicating they have been unlucky on balls in play. Park and weather conditions for this game are neutral. Heading into Game 2 of this four-game series, the Mets claimed the opener with a 4-2 victory. The Marlins have struggled recently, posting a 3-7 record in their last 10 games, while the Mets are at a middling 5-5. How the model decided: The model’s lean towards the Marlins ML was primarily driven by the Mets' taxed bullpen, which added runs to the Marlins' projection and Freddy Peralta's 4.46 FIP, which pushes the Marlins' offensive projection higher. The Marlins' rested bullpen and the 0.30 runs docked from the Mets' offense due to Juan Soto's absence also contributed. The largest driver was the exposure of the Mets' taxed bullpen against Miami's offense. Lean: Miami Marlins ML (+111)

Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves

The SharpSide model projects a tight contest between the Nationals and Braves, favoring Washington with a 5.0–4.7 score, contrasting significantly with the market's lean toward Atlanta. This represents a 1.2-run margin difference toward the home team compared to market consensus. Foster Griffin starts for the Nationals, showcasing a solid 3.93 FIP and a 1.23 HR/9, which are good indicators of his ability to suppress quality contact and home runs. Facing him, Bryce Elder for the Braves has a 4.47 FIP and a 1.43 HR/9, suggesting he is more susceptible to allowing runs, especially via the long ball. The Nationals' bullpen has a 5.00 season relief ERA, which is well above the league average, contributing a model run nudge of +0.28, indicating it is likely to give up more runs. The Braves' bullpen, despite a strong 3.41 season relief ERA, is taxed with a 0.47 fatigue index, leading to a model run nudge of +0.50. This means that while Atlanta's relief corps is generally effective, its current workload implies a higher risk of runs allowed tonight. Washington's offense shows neutral BABIP luck at .291, while the Braves' offense has been unlucky with a .285 BABIP, leading to an upward regression of 0.08 runs to their projection. Park and weather conditions are neutral for this contest. The Braves narrowly secured Game 1 of this four-game series with a 5-4 victory. Both teams enter this game with average recent form, the Nationals at 5-5 and the Braves at 6-4 over their last 10 games. How the model decided: The model’s lean toward the Washington Nationals ML was significantly influenced by Bryce Elder's 4.47 FIP, which pushes the Nationals' offensive projection higher, and the Braves' taxed bullpen, which adds runs to the Nationals' projection. Foster Griffin's stronger 3.93 FIP also contributed. The largest driver was Bryce Elder's FIP. Lean: Washington Nationals ML (+101)

First Five Innings: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (F5 UNDER)

Our F5 model projects a total of 3.42 runs for the first five innings of the Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves game, substantially lower than the market-implied F5 total of 4.73 runs. This creates a -1.32 run edge toward the UNDER. Foster Griffin, pitching for Washington, boasts a blended F5-only ERA of 3.07, demonstrating strong early-game performance. Bryce Elder, on the mound for Atlanta, has a blended F5-only ERA of 4.12. Despite Atlanta's offense seeing a slight upward regression from their unlucky .285 BABIP, the starting pitching matchup, especially Griffin's early-game efficiency, points to a low-scoring start. Lean: F5 UNDER 4.5 total

Batter Prop: Pedro Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases

SharpSide has identified significant line movement on the Pedro Ramirez Total Bases Over 1.5 prop. The consensus price for this OVER has moved from +148 to +125, representing a 4.1 probability-point shift toward the OVER since opening. This kind of aggressive movement across multiple sportsbooks historically flags sharp action entering the market. In the New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs matchup, the smart money indicates strong confidence in Pedro Ramirez exceeding 1.5 total bases tonight. Lean: Pedro Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)

How the model decided

Today's featured divergences were primarily driven by a combination of starter quality, bullpen dynamics, and BABIP regression. For the Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds game, the significant upward regression on the Pirates' lucky BABIP and both teams' taxed bullpens were major factors pushing the total OVER. In the Miami Marlins at New York Mets game, the Mets' taxed bullpen, coupled with the absence of Juan Soto and the short average outings of both starters, were critical in the model's lean toward the Marlins. For the Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves game, the stronger FIP of Foster Griffin for Washington and the Braves' taxed bullpen were key drivers in the Nationals' moneyline lean. The model also considered advanced Sabermetric data, systems trends, and other analytics.

How to read this

This analysis represents the SharpSide model's projected outcomes and divergences from market consensus. It is provided for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Projections update after publish. This brief is locked in at the 11:30 am ET refresh, but the model keeps recalculating all day as lineups are posted, weather shifts, pitching changes are announced, and lines move — a side or total highlighted here can flip before first pitch. Always confirm the current number on the live projections page (which locks 30 minutes before each game's first pitch) before placing a bet.