MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for July 25, 2026 | SharpSide

SharpSideBaseball identifies a 15-game slate today, Saturday, offering various high-value angles for sharp bettors. Our model indicates a substantial +1.4 run total edge over market consensus in both the Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers matchups. This brief refreshes at 11:30 am Eastern, factoring in new analytics, weather, pitching changes, and line movement, meaning our featured matchups and recommendations may update. Today's Best Bet is highlighted immediately below.

Today's Best Bet: Minnesota Twins ML

Today's Best Bet is the single game SharpSide has the highest confidence in this Saturday: the Minnesota Twins Moneyline at -157 against the Athletics. Our model projects the Minnesota Twins to win by a clear 1.1 runs, with a final score of 4.8–5.9. This projection aligns closely with the market's implied margin, positioning this as a conviction play rather than a divergence-based edge. When our model's projected outcome is so decisive, even with market agreement, it flags as our highest-confidence selection.

Best Bet: Minnesota Twins ML (-157)

Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles

The Atlanta Braves meet the Baltimore Orioles today with Bryce Elder starting for Atlanta and Brandon Young taking the mound for Baltimore. Elder holds a 0.303 xwOBA-against, indicating he generally limits hard contact, while Young, facing the Braves lineup, has a solid 3.85 FIP and a strong 0.89 HR/9, suggesting good command and home run suppression. SharpSide's model projects a 4.9–4.4 Braves victory, presenting a +0.3 run total edge versus market estimates, which predict a 3.8–5.2 Orioles win.

The Braves won the first game of this series yesterday, 7-6, setting the stage for a competitive Game 2. Both teams enter this contest with strong recent form, each holding a 7-3 record over their last 10 games. Neither team shows significant BABIP luck discrepancies, with the Braves at 0.288 and the Orioles at 0.292, both near the league average of 0.290. No notable park or weather conditions are expected to influence scoring. While Elder averages a respectable 5.24 innings per start, the Atlanta bullpen, despite its excellent 3.27 season relief ERA (league average 4.20), is taxed with a fatigue index of 0.33. The Baltimore bullpen, by contrast, is fresher with a 4.08 ERA and a minimal 0.01 fatigue index.

How the model decided: The model's lean toward the Atlanta Braves Moneyline is primarily driven by Bryce Elder's ability to limit quality contact, evidenced by his 0.303 xwOBA-against, which pushes down the Orioles' projected scoring. Despite being taxed, the Braves' superior 3.27 bullpen ERA compared to Baltimore's 4.08 provided a significant lift to Atlanta's win probability, mitigating potential late-game run exposure. The strong recent form of both clubs (7-3) provided a neutral input, but the more efficient contact management from Elder and the overall bullpen quality for Atlanta were the largest movers in favoring the road team.

Lean: Atlanta Braves ML (-103)

Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants

The Los Angeles Angels face the San Francisco Giants today, with Ryan Johnson on the hill for the Angels and Robbie Ray starting for the Giants. Johnson, in a modest sample of 38.3 innings, has struggled with a 6.26 FIP and a high 2.35 HR/9, indicating significant vulnerability to extra-base hits. Ray, pitching for San Francisco, owns a 3.33 ERA and a 4.60 FIP, suggesting some disparity between his surface results and underlying metrics, though his 1.22 HR/9 is near league average. SharpSide's model projects a 4.5–5.4 outcome in favor of the Giants, revealing a substantial +1.4 run total edge over the consensus market total.

Yesterday, the Giants edged out the Angels 7-6 in Game 1 of this series. Both teams have struggled recently, holding identical 4-6 records over their last 10 contests. Johnson averages just 5.00 innings per start, exposing the Angels' 4.42 bullpen ERA (league average 4.20) for a significant portion of the game. The Giants' bullpen also has a 4.42 ERA but is well-rested (fatigue index -0.13). The Angels have been lucky on balls in play (0.300 BABIP), leading our model to regress their offensive projection down by 0.14 runs. Similarly, the Giants exhibit a 0.295 BABIP, also indicating some positive run-luck, prompting a 0.07-run reduction in their projected offense. There are no notable park or weather conditions.

How the model decided: This lean toward the OVER is primarily driven by Ryan Johnson's concerning peripheral statistics, particularly his 2.35 HR/9 and 6.26 FIP, which significantly elevate the projected runs for the San Francisco Giants. Johnson's short average workload of 5.00 innings per start further exposes the Angels' league-average bullpen (4.42 ERA) for more innings than usual, creating additional scoring opportunities for both teams. Despite both offenses experiencing some BABIP luck-regression (Angels down 0.14 runs, Giants down 0.07 runs), the pitching matchup's offensive implications, particularly from Johnson, provided the largest push to the total.

Lean: OVER 9.5 total (-115)

Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers

The Colorado Rockies take on the Milwaukee Brewers this Saturday, with Ryan Feltner starting for the Rockies and Robert Gasser for the Brewers. Feltner brings a 5.68 FIP and a 1.92 HR/9, indicating he has been prone to allowing significant contact and home runs. Gasser, pitching for Milwaukee, has a 5.13 FIP and a 1.93 HR/9, suggesting similar vulnerabilities against the Rockies lineup. Our model projects a 4.4–5.5 Brewers win, diverging from the market's 3.5–5.0 consensus score and creating a substantial +1.4 run total edge.

Yesterday, the Rockies secured a 5-2 victory over the Brewers in Game 1 of this series. Both teams enter today with middling recent form, as the Rockies are 4-6 and the Brewers are 5-5 over their last 10 games. Feltner averages just 4.96 innings per start, significantly exposing the Rockies' bullpen, which carries a league-worst 4.91 season relief ERA and a model nudge of -0.36 runs due to fatigue. Gasser averages 5.38 innings per start, and while the Brewers' bullpen has a strong 3.51 ERA, it is slightly fatigued. Both offenses have also enjoyed some luck on balls in play this season: the Rockies' 0.307 BABIP leads to a 0.26-run regression in their offensive projection, and the Brewers' 0.305 BABIP results in a 0.24-run decrease for their scoring forecast. No notable park or weather conditions are expected.

How the model decided: The model's strong lean on the OVER for this matchup is primarily driven by the poor peripheral pitching metrics of both starters, Ryan Feltner's 5.68 FIP and Robert Gasser's 5.13 FIP, each indicating a high propensity to surrender runs and hard contact. Feltner's short average workload of 4.96 innings per start, combined with the Rockies' struggling bullpen (4.91 season relief ERA, model run nudge -0.36), heavily exposes their relief corps and pushes projected runs upward. Despite significant negative BABIP regression for both the Rockies (0.26 runs subtracted) and the Brewers (0.24 runs subtracted), the poor pitching and bullpen factors were the largest movers, pushing the total higher.

Lean: OVER 9.5 total (-107)

First Five Innings: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets (F5 UNDER)

The First Five Innings total between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets offers a compelling UNDER lean. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, starting for the Dodgers, brings a strong F5-only ERA of 2.60 over 90.0 innings, blended with a 2.78 full-game ERA. Nolan McLean, for the Mets, counters with a F5-only ERA of 3.08 over 96.3 innings, blended with a 3.34 main ERA. The model projects a low combined F5 total of 2.90 runs, a significant -1.31 run difference from the market-implied 4.21 runs. Offensively, the Dodgers have been lucky on balls in play (leading to a 0.19-run reduction), while the Mets have been unlucky (resulting in a 0.21-run increase).

Lean: F5 UNDER 4.0 total

Batter Prop: Esteury Ruiz Over 0.5 Total Bases

SharpSide flags the Esteury Ruiz Over 0.5 Total Bases in the San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins game as a compelling market-driven play. The consensus price for this prop has moved from -135 to -158, translating to a substantial shift of +3.8 probability points toward the OVER since opening. This aggressive line movement is a historical indicator of sharp money entering the market, suggesting informed bettors are confident in Ruiz exceeding 0.5 total bases today.

Lean: Esteury Ruiz Over 0.5 Total Bases (-158)

How the model decided

Today's divergences from market consensus are primarily driven by specific pitching inefficiencies and bullpen implications. The Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants total lean was heavily influenced by Ryan Johnson's poor FIP and HR/9. Similarly, the Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers OVER was largely due to the weak FIPs of both starting pitchers and the highly exposed Rockies bullpen. The Atlanta Braves Moneyline lean was supported by Bryce Elder's strong xwOBA-against and the underlying quality of the Atlanta bullpen despite its workload. The model also considered advanced Sabermetric data, systems trends, and other analytics.

How to read this

This analysis presents SharpSide's model-driven view of today's MLB slate, highlighting where our projections significantly diverge from market consensus. These represent analytical edges, not financial advice.