MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for July 25, 2026 | SharpSide

A 15-game Saturday slate presents opportunities where SharpSide's predictive models deviate from market consensus. Today, our model identifies significant edges, including a +1.2 run total edge in the Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers matchup. This brief updates at 11:30 am Eastern based on new analytics, weather factors, pitching changes, and line movement, so featured matchups may update. Today's Best Bet is highlighted immediately after this lede.

Today's Best Bet: Minnesota Twins ML

Today's highest-confidence play from SharpSide is on the Minnesota Twins Moneyline at -167 against the Athletics. While not the largest market divergence, this selection represents the model's strongest conviction regarding the outright winner. The model projects the Minnesota Twins to secure a decisive victory with a margin of 1.1 runs, forecasting a 5.9-4.8 final score. This projection aligns closely with the market's implied margin, underscoring this as a conviction play where our model's simulated outcomes are most consistent in favor of the Twins. We are not identifying a pricing inefficiency here, but rather a robust outcome probability. Best Bet: Minnesota Twins ML (-167)

Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles

SharpSide's model projects a 4.9-4.4 victory for the Atlanta Braves, offering a +0.3 run edge on the total compared to the market's 3.8-5.2 consensus score. Furthermore, our model shows a significant bias of -2.0 runs toward the home team, indicating the market overestimates the Orioles' advantage. Atlanta sends Bryce Elder to the mound, whose 4.45 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, measuring underlying pitcher skill, with a league average of ~4.10) suggests he allows more hard contact than average, though his 0.303 xwOBA-against (expected weighted on-base average allowed, where below .315 indicates weak contact) points to some success in suppressing quality contact. For the Orioles, Brandon Young counters with a more favorable 3.85 FIP and a strong 0.89 HR/9 (home runs allowed per nine innings, compared to league average ~1.20) indicating better home run suppression. Heading into the second game of this three-game series, the Braves narrowly took Game 1 with a 7-6 win. Both teams enter with strong recent form, each holding a 7-3 record over their last 10 contests. The Atlanta Braves bullpen, typically a strength with a 3.27 season relief ERA (league average ~4.10), enters this game with a 0.33 fatigue index, marking them as taxed. This suggests that their top high-leverage arms may be less available or effective, potentially exposing the Braves to more runs should Elder exit early. How the model decided: The market's overestimation of the Orioles' offensive capabilities, particularly against Elder's mixed metrics, and the heavily taxed Atlanta Braves bullpen which projects for increased vulnerability, were key drivers. The model also notes both teams show neutral BABIP luck (Atlanta at 0.288, Baltimore at 0.292), meaning no statistical regression was applied based on balls in play. The substantial -2.0 run margin edge towards the Braves relative to market sentiment was the largest driver of this lean. Lean: Atlanta Braves ML (-105)

Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers

Our model predicts an elevated scoring environment in the Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers game, projecting a 4.3-5.4 score for a total of 9.7 runs, which creates a +1.2 run edge on the market's consensus total. This translates to a lean on the OVER 8.5 total. The Rockies start Ryan Feltner, who carries an unfavorable 5.68 FIP and a 1.92 HR/9, indicating he is prone to giving up hard contact and home runs against Milwaukee's lineup. On the Brewers' side, Robert Gasser starts with a 5.13 FIP and a 1.93 HR/9, similarly suggesting a vulnerability to opposing offenses. Feltner averages just 4.96 IP per start, consistently exiting early and heavily exposing the Colorado bullpen, which owns a poor 4.91 season relief ERA (league average ~4.10). In contrast, the Brewers' bullpen is stronger at 3.51 but also has a neutral fatigue index. In the series opener, the Rockies bested the Brewers 5-2. The Rockies enter today's contest struggling with a 4-6 record over their last 10 games, while the Brewers have been middling at 5-5. There are no notable park or weather conditions influencing this matchup. How the model decided: The combined high FIP and HR/9 rates of both starting pitchers, significantly pushing the total runs up for both offenses, were critical factors. Ryan Feltner's abbreviated average start length exacerbates the situation by forcing the below-average Colorado bullpen into extended action, further adding to projected runs. Both the Colorado Rockies (0.307 BABIP) and the Milwaukee Brewers (0.305 BABIP) have experienced lucky outcomes on balls in play; our model regresses both offenses down by 0.26 and 0.24 runs respectively, but the pitching and bullpen factors overwhelmed this regression. The poor starting pitching for both sides is the largest driver pushing this total OVER. Lean: OVER 8.5 total (-116)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals

The SharpSide model projects a 4.5-5.6 score in favor of the Washington Nationals, leading to a +1.1 run edge on the total compared to the market consensus of 4.0-5.0. This significant divergence indicates a strong lean towards the OVER 9.5 total. The Diamondbacks start Mitch Bratt, who, despite a limited sample size of 10.7 innings, has shown concerning metrics with a 7.42 FIP and 2.53 HR/9, suggesting a high susceptibility to runs. Bratt averages only 3.56 IP per start, meaning the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen will be heavily relied upon. For the Nationals, Foster Griffin takes the mound, boasting a more respectable 2.68 ERA and a 0.304 xwOBA-against, indicating he allows weak contact from opposing bats. The Diamondbacks claimed Game 1 of this series with a 3-2 victory. Arizona brings strong recent form into Saturday's game, holding an 8-2 record over their last 10, while the Nationals are struggling at 4-6. The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen, which has a 4.04 season relief ERA, is also slightly fatigued with a 0.09 fatigue index, pushing the model's projected runs up by +0.53 from that unit. No notable park or weather conditions are reported for this game. How the model decided: The poor underlying metrics of Mitch Bratt, especially his high FIP and HR/9 in a small sample, significantly elevate the Nationals' projected run total. Bratt's short average outing severely exposes the bullpen, which is already showing some fatigue with a +0.53 run nudge from the model. The Arizona Diamondbacks, with a 0.280 BABIP, have been unlucky on balls in play, prompting our model to regress their offense up by +0.15 runs, further contributing to the OVER. The combined effect of Bratt's ineffectiveness and the bullpen exposure is the largest driver. Lean: OVER 9.5 total (-111)

First Five Innings: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets (F5 UNDER)

For the first five innings of the Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets matchup, SharpSide's Bayesian starter model indicates a notable edge on the under. Our F5 total projection is 2.90 runs, a significant -1.26 run difference compared to the market's implied F5 total of 4.16 runs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, starting for the Dodgers, presents strong early-game numbers with an F5-only ERA of 2.60 over 90.0 innings. The Mets' starter, Nolan McLean, also has solid F5 performance with a 3.08 ERA over 96.3 innings. While the Dodgers' offense has been lucky on balls in play, resulting in a -0.19 run regression, the Mets' offense has been unlucky and sees a +0.21 run regression. However, the strength of both starting pitchers in the early frames firmly drives this F5 Under projection. Lean: F5 UNDER 4.0 total

Batter Prop: Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases

The market for Ketel Marte's Total Bases Over 1.5 in the Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals game has seen sharp movement, indicating professional money pushing the line. The consensus price for this prop moved from -108 to -114, representing a 1.3 probability-point shift toward the OVER since opening. Historically, such aggressive cross-book line movement in a player prop market flags significant sharp action. This movement highlights a collective belief from sophisticated bettors that Marte is poised for a productive offensive outing, making the Over 1.5 Total Bases an attractive play based on market dynamics. Lean: Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases (-114)

How the model decided

Today's blog games showcase a range of factors driving market divergences. In the Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles game, the model's lean was primarily driven by the market's overestimation of the Orioles' current power, particularly against a taxed Braves bullpen. The Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers OVER was heavily influenced by the poor FIP and HR/9 metrics of both starting pitchers, compounded by the Rockies' short starter workload. For the Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals matchup, the extremely poor peripherals and small sample size of Mitch Bratt, alongside the Diamondbacks' unlucky BABIP pushing runs up, were critical to the OVER lean. The model also considered advanced Sabermetric data, systems trends, and other analytics.

How to read this

This analysis provides SharpSide's model-driven view of today's MLB slate, highlighting potential value spots where our projections diverge from market consensus. These leans are not financial advice, but rather informational insights derived from our proprietary analytics.