MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for July 24, 2026 | SharpSide

The Friday 15-game MLB slate offers several compelling divergences from market consensus, with the SharpSide model identifying significant value. Today, we highlight three matchups where our proprietary analytics flag discrepancies: the New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies, the Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, and the Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals. The Kansas City Royals and Arizona Diamondbacks matchups both feature a considerable 1.5-run edge versus the market total. As always, this daily brief incorporates new analytical data, weather factors, pitching changes, and line movement, so these featured matchups may refresh by our 11:30 am Eastern update. Today's Best Bet is highlighted immediately below.

Today's Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML

Today's Best Bet is the single game and line SharpSide has the highest confidence in. Our model projects the Milwaukee Brewers to win outright against the Colorado Rockies with a predicted margin of 1.7 runs (4.1–5.8). This forecast aligns roughly with the market's implied margin, demonstrating strong conviction in the Brewers' probability of victory. Even when market pricing does not present a substantial arbitrage opportunity, this is where our model's projected outcome is most decisive, signaling the highest probability of a successful outcome for the favored team. Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-246)

New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies

This series opener features Cam Schlittler for the New York Yankees and Jesús Luzardo for the Philadelphia Phillies. Schlittler brings a 2.72 FIP and a sharp 0.270 xwOBA-against, indicating he consistently suppresses quality contact. Luzardo counters with an impressive 2.90 FIP and an even tighter 0.264 xwOBA-against, suggesting similarly effective weak contact allowed. Our model projects the Yankees to outscore the Phillies 4.3–3.6, delivering a -0.2 run edge on the total compared to market consensus and signaling a -1.6 run margin shift toward the home team. The Yankees enter with strong recent form, sporting a 7-3 record in their last ten games, though they won their last outing scoring only 2 runs. The Phillies have been middling at 5-5 in their last ten, losing their most recent game despite scoring 5 runs. Both offenses have been unlucky on balls in play this season; the Yankees' .278 BABIP leads our model to add 0.18 runs to their projected offense, while the Phillies' .279 BABIP adds 0.16 runs to theirs. The Phillies' bullpen has a 4.43 season relief ERA, above the 4.10 league average, but shows a model run nudge of -0.39, meaning our projections expect it to perform better than that raw ERA suggests, impacting game totals downwards. Park and weather conditions are neutral, with a score of 5 indicating no notable factors.

How the model decided: The model’s lean toward the New York Yankees on the moneyline is driven by a combination of factors, including the Yankees' strong recent form and the slight offensive regression we project for them due to their unlucky BABIP this season. The strong peripherals of both starting pitchers, particularly Luzardo's tight 0.264 xwOBA-against, contribute to lower projected run totals. However, the largest driver for the side lean is the offensive regression adjustment, which adds 0.18 runs to the Yankees' expected performance, pushing the projection in their favor. Lean: New York Yankees ML (+112)

Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers

We have Beck Way taking the mound for the Kansas City Royals against Tarik Skubal for the Detroit Tigers in Game 2 of 4 from Comerica Park. Skubal is a clear asset for the Tigers, boasting a dominant 2.85 FIP and a 0.272 xwOBA-against, indicating excellent command and suppression of quality contact. Way, with limited major league innings (22.3 IP) and a 4.90 FIP and 1.61 HR/9, is a less established arm, and his role is uncertain; our model treats him as a starter expected to work multiple innings, rather than a traditional opener. The model's projection diverges significantly from the market consensus, showing a +1.5 run edge toward the OVER 7.5 total, with a model score of 3.8–5.2 for a combined 9.0 runs. The Royals' offense has been slightly lucky with a .294 BABIP, leading our model to subtract 0.06 runs from their projection, while the Tigers, with a .280 BABIP, are due for an upward regression of 0.14 runs. The Tigers claimed Game 1 of this series with a 4-3 victory. Both bullpens show some vulnerability, with the Royals' bullpen posting a 5.43 season relief ERA (well above the 4.10 league average) and the Tigers' bullpen at 3.80 (below average) but showing significant fatigue with a 0.32 fatigue index, leading to a model run nudge of +0.60. Park and weather conditions are neutral, with a score of 0.

How the model decided: The significant total edge on the OVER is primarily driven by the expected offensive regression for the Detroit Tigers, adding 0.14 runs to their projection, and the fatigued Detroit bullpen, which receives a +0.60 model run nudge. While Tarik Skubal is a strong arm, the less certain role and limited sample size for Beck Way, coupled with the Royals' poor bullpen ERA and the Tigers' taxed relief corps, pushes projected runs upwards. The largest driver pushing the total over is the model's upwards adjustment for the tired Detroit bullpen. Lean: OVER 7.5 total

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Washington Nationals kick off their three-game series tonight with Eduardo Rodriguez facing Carson Palmquist. Rodriguez for the Diamondbacks carries a strong 2.62 ERA through 116.7 innings, though his 4.09 FIP and 0.346 xwOBA-against suggest he has been slightly fortunate in suppressing contact quality. For the Nationals, Palmquist is a short-workload starter, averaging only 2.25 IP per start; his 8.74 ERA is misleading given his very small sample size (11.3 IP). His 3.37 FIP and 0.312 xwOBA-against are more indicative of his underlying talent, but his limited innings mean the Nationals' bullpen will be heavily exposed. Our model projects a high-scoring affair at 5.7–5.3, with a substantial +1.5 run total edge over the market consensus, leaning toward OVER 9.5 total. The Arizona Diamondbacks enter with strong recent form, going 8-2 in their last 10 games and winning their last outing with 10 runs. The Washington Nationals are middling at 5-5 in their last 10, winning their last game by scoring 8 runs. The Diamondbacks' offense is projected for an upward regression of 0.16 runs due to an unlucky .279 BABIP this season. Palmquist's short average start length ensures the Nationals' bullpen, with a 5.09 season relief ERA (well above the 4.10 league average), will be heavily taxed, leading to a model run nudge of +0.32 runs. The Diamondbacks' bullpen also shows signs of being taxed with a 0.28 fatigue index, leading to a +0.42 model run nudge. Park and weather conditions are neutral.

How the model decided: The model's strong lean toward the OVER is primarily driven by Carson Palmquist's short workload, which heavily exposes the Nationals' sub-par bullpen and their +0.32 model run nudge. Both bullpens showing substantial fatigue also contribute to higher projected run totals. Additionally, the Diamondbacks' offensive regression, adding 0.16 runs due to their unlucky BABIP, pushes the total upward. The largest driver contributing to the OVER is the exposure of the Nationals' bullpen from Palmquist's short starting workload. Lean: OVER 9.5 total

First Five Innings: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5 UNDER)

The First Five Innings total for the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies shows a clear UNDER lean from our model. With Cam Schlittler (Yankees) on the mound, our Bayesian starter model forecasts a 2.40 F5-only ERA. Jesús Luzardo (Phillies) projects a 3.29 F5-only ERA. Combined, the model's F5 total is a tight 2.73 runs, significantly lower than the market-implied 4.21 runs. This substantial -1.49 run edge highlights the effectiveness expected from both starters in the early innings. Both offenses are also projected to see an uptick in late-game performance due to early-season BABIP unluckiness, further consolidating the lower early-game run projection. Lean: F5 UNDER 4.0 total

Batter Prop: Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 Total Bases

The Total Bases prop for Dillon Dingler and the Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers matchup has seen notable sharp market movement. The consensus price for Dingler to go Over 1.5 Total Bases moved from +108 to -101, a significant shift of 2.2 probability-points toward the OVER. This aggressive line movement is a historical indicator of smart money entering the market, suggesting that professional bettors foresee a strong performance from Dingler in this specific matchup. Lean: Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 Total Bases (-101)

How the model decided

Today's largest divergences from market consensus are largely influenced by starting pitcher peripherals and bullpen implications. In the Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers game, the combination of a less established starter for Kansas City and a fatigued yet statistically average bullpen in Detroit significantly pushed the total OVER by +1.5 runs compared to market expectations. Similarly, the Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals matchup features a very short-workload starter for the Nationals, exposing their below-average bullpen and driving a substantial +1.5 run total edge toward the OVER. Additionally, our model identified impactful offensive BABIP regressions, adjusting run projections for the Yankees, Phillies, Royals, and Diamondbacks based on historical luck on balls in play. The model also considered advanced Sabermetric data, systems trends, and other analytics.

How to read this

SharpSideBaseball provides data-driven analysis reflecting our model's view against market consensus. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.