MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for July 20, 2026 | SharpSide

The Monday 15-game slate presents several intriguing situations where the SharpSide model diverges from market consensus. Our analysis today highlights an OVER between the Mets and Brewers, showing a model +1.7 run edge versus the market, another OVER in the Twins-Guardians matchup with a +1.6 run edge, and a lean on the Pirates moneyline against the Yankees. Today's Best Bet is featured immediately below.

Today's Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML

Today's Best Bet represents the single game and line SharpSide has the highest confidence in. Our model projects the Milwaukee Brewers to win this evening's game against the New York Mets by a margin of 1.2 runs, with a final score prediction of 4.0–5.2. This forecast aligns closely with the market's implied margin, indicating a strong conviction in the Brewers' outright victory rather than a significant edge against theconsensus price. While there isn't a large discrepancy with market pricing, this projection reflects the game where our model's outcome is most decisive.

Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-213)

New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers

The SharpSide model projects 9.2 runs in total for this game, a 1.7-run increase over the market consensus of 7.5 runs. The Mets send Freddy Peralta to the mound, who carries a 4.38 FIP, indicating a higher expected ERA than his current mark, and a 1.29 HR/9, suggesting he surrenders home runs at an above-average rate for the opposing Brewers lineup. Milwaukee counters with Jacob Misiorowski, whose 2.09 FIP points to strong underlying performance, supported by a 0.223 xwOBA-against, which indicates he allows very weak contact and suppresses opposing batting averages and slugging. Misiorowski also boasts a high 13.54 K/9, meaning he generates strikeouts at an elite rate against Mets hitters. With Peralta averaging only 4.79 IP per start, the Mets bullpen, which has a 4.00 season relief ERA, will be heavily exposed. The Brewers' offense has benefited from a .307 BABIP, indicating some good fortune on balls in play, and the model regresses their offense down by 0.28 runs. Conversely, the New York Mets have been unlucky with a .273 BABIP, pushing their offensive projection up by 0.23 runs. Field conditions tonight are neutral with a park/weather score of 6. This is the series opener of a three-game set. The Mets are 5-5 in their last 10 games, winning their last outing while scoring 6 runs, while the Brewers are 6-4 in their last 10, winning their last game by scoring 3 runs.

How the model decided: Misiorowski's strong underlying metrics (2.09 FIP, 0.223 xwOBA-against) push the Mets' projected runs down significantly, while Peralta's average 4.79 IP/start combined with his elevated 4.38 FIP increases the Brewers' projected run total due to exposure for the Mets' bullpen. The regression of the Mets' unlucky .273 BABIP adds 0.23 runs to their projection, and the park/weather conditions are neutral. The largest overall mover was the discrepancy in starting pitcher FIP and xwOBA-against, driving the total higher.

Lean: OVER 7.5 total (-111)

Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians

Our model projects a combined 9.1 runs for this contest, exceeding the market consensus of 7.5 by 1.6 runs. The Twins send Joe Ryan to the mound, who has an excellent 2.77 FIP and suppresses contact with a 0.279 xwOBA-against, indicating he allows weak contact against the Guardians' lineup. He also features an impressive 10.44 K/9. For the Guardians, Tanner Bibee starts, with a 4.82 FIP and a 1.59 HR/9, suggesting he is prone to giving up home runs at an above-average rate and will face a more potent Twins offense than his ERA indicates. No specific park or weather factors are noted for this game. The Guardians have been unlucky on balls in play with a .279 BABIP, leading the model to regress their offense up by 0.14 runs. The Twins' BABIP is neutral at .289. Both bullpens show signs of fatigue; the Twins' bullpen has a 5.04 season relief ERA and a fatigue index of 0.17, leading to a model run nudge of +0.19, while the Guardians' bullpen is also taxed with a fatigue index of 0.45 and a season relief ERA of 3.73, resulting in a model run nudge of +0.40. This game marks the opener of a four-game series. The Twins are 6-4 in their last 10 games, losing their last outing while scoring 1 run. The Guardians are 5-5 in their last 10, also losing their last game while scoring 1 run.

How the model decided: Bibee's elevated 4.82 FIP and 1.59 HR/9 significantly push the Twins' projected runs up. The Guardians' taxed bullpen, indicated by a 0.45 fatigue index and resulting in a +0.40 run nudge, also contributes to a higher total. While Ryan's strong pitching metrics (2.77 FIP, 0.279 xwOBA-against) suppress the Guardians' offense, the Guardians' unlucky .279 BABIP adds 0.14 runs to their projection. The largest mover in this projection was the combined effect of Bibee's underlying metrics and the Guardians' taxed bullpen.

Lean: OVER 7.5 total (-114)

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees

The SharpSide model projects a total of 8.8 runs for this game, which is 0.8 runs higher than the market consensus, and leans into the Pirates ML despite the market favoring the Yankees. Pittsburgh's Braxton Ashcraft takes the mound with a strong 3.32 FIP and a 0.281 xwOBA-against, indicating he allows weak contact and limits offensive production. He also features a solid 10.16 K/9, suggesting he can generate strikeouts against the Yankees lineup. New York counters with Ryan Weathers, whose 3.87 FIP is respectable but whose 1.47 HR/9 suggests a susceptibility to home runs against the Pirates offense. Weathers averages a short 4.81 IP per start, heavily exposing the Yankees' bullpen, which currently has a 3.13 season relief ERA but a high fatigue index of 0.48, leading to a model run nudge of +0.40. The Pirates' bullpen is also taxed with a 0.47 fatigue index and a 4.44 season relief ERA. The Pirates have been lucky at the plate with a .323 BABIP, leading the model to regress their offense down by 0.45 runs. The Yankees, however, have been unlucky with a .278 BABIP, pushing their offensive projection up by 0.18 runs. Park conditions are neutral with a score of 5. This is the series opener of a three-game set. Pittsburgh is playing well, with a 7-3 record in their last 10 games, winning their previous game while scoring 7 runs. The Yankees have a 6-4 record in their last 10, winning their last game while scoring 2 runs.

How the model decided: Ashcraft's solid 3.32 FIP and 0.281 xwOBA-against suppress the Yankees' projected runs, while Weathers' short average start and elevated 1.47 HR/9 for the Pirates push their projected runs up. The Yankees' taxed bullpen, with a 0.48 fatigue index and a +0.40 run nudge, also contributes to a higher run projection for the Pirates. While the Pirates' lucky .323 BABIP regresses their offense down, the Yankees' unlucky .278 BABIP adds 0.18 runs to their total, pushing the side toward the Yankees. The primary driver for the Moneyline lean is the perceived pitching gap, combined with the bullpen fatigue.

Lean: Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-101)

First Five Innings: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays (F5 UNDER)

Our F5 model projects a total of 2.53 runs for the first five innings of the Rays-Blue Jays matchup, which is a significant -1.37 run edge compared to the market-implied F5 total of 3.90 runs. This discrepancy is primarily driven by the strength of both starting pitchers. Nick Martinez, the Rays' starter, features a blended F5-only ERA of 2.58. Dylan Cease for the Blue Jays is similarly strong, with a blended F5-only ERA of 2.71. Adding to the UNDER lean, the Rays' offense has been lucky with balls in play, necessitating a 0.10-run regression by the model.

Lean: F5 UNDER 3.5 total

Batter Prop: Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Total Bases

Sharp line movement has been observed on Jackson Chourio's Total Bases market, specifically on the Over 1.5. The consensus price for this prop has moved from +130 to +113, representing a 3.5 probability-point shift toward the OVER since opening. This aggressive adjustment in the New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers matchup historically flags sharp action and indicates a belief in Chourio's ability to exceed 1.5 total bases tonight.

Lean: Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Total Bases (+113)

How the model decided

Today's divergences from market consensus are largely driven by a combination of starting pitcher performance indicators, bullpen conditions, and BABIP regression. In the Mets-Brewers game, the significant gap in FIP and xwOBA-against between Misiorowski and Peralta was a major factor. For the Twins-Guardians, Tanner Bibee's higher FIP and HR/9, combined with both bullpens showing fatigue, tilted the total upward. The Pirates-Yankees lean was heavily influenced by Braxton Ashcraft's strong underlying metrics and the taxed New York bullpen. The model also considered advanced Sabermetric data, systems trends, and other analytics.

How to read this

This analysis represents the SharpSide model's derived view of today's MLB slate, highlighting discrepancies against current market pricing. These are not financial recommendations, but rather opportunities identified through our quantitative framework.