MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for July 17, 2026 | SharpSide

Today's 15-game slate presents a number of intriguing matchups, with the SharpSide model identifying its largest run-edge of the day at -1.67 runs in the Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves afternoon contest's First Five Innings total. We highlight three games where model projections diverge from market consensus, including both ends of the Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox doubleheader. Today's Best Bet is highlighted immediately following this introduction.

Today's Best Bet: Atlanta Braves ML

This is the single game and line SharpSide has the highest confidence in today. Our model projects the Atlanta Braves to win their home opener against the Texas Rangers by 1.8 runs (2.6–4.4), representing a significant 0.9 runs stronger than the market's implied margin. While the market consensus also favors the Braves, the model's conviction in this outcome is notably higher, making it our strongest conviction play of Friday. This projection is driven by the significant pitching advantage the Braves hold and the home team's recent offensive form. Best Bet: Atlanta Braves ML (-209)

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox (Game 1)

In the opener of today's doubleheader, Griffin Jax, with a 3.47 ERA and 9.13 K/9 over 70.0 IP, takes the mound for the Rays against Jake Bennett, carrying a 2.64 ERA and 6.61 K/9 over 47.7 IP for the Red Sox. Our model projects a 2.9–4.0 final score, representing a -1.6 run total edge and a +0.7 run margin edge toward the Red Sox compared to the market consensus of 4.0–4.5. Neither venue nor weather conditions are expected to significantly influence scoring. This 4-game series is just beginning, with both teams looking to set an early tone. The Tampa Bay Rays have gone 5-5 in their last 10 games, losing their most recent outing while scoring only 2 runs. The Boston Red Sox enter this contest on a strong run, with a 9-1 record over their last 10, having won their last game scoring 3 runs.

How the model decided: The model’s lean Uunder 8.5 total is primarily driven by the significant -1.6 run edge against the market total. The analysis of the Tampa Bay Rays' BABIP at 0.299 indicates they have been lucky, leading the model to subtract 0.13 runs from their offense, pushing the total down. Similarly, the Boston Red Sox's BABIP at 0.294 is also lucky, prompting the model to subtract 0.05 runs from their offense and further depress the total. Moreover, Griffin Jax's short average workload of 5.00 IP per start means the Rays' slightly below-average bullpen (4.27 season relief ERA) will be exposed more heavily, which is factored into the total projection. The Red Sox's recent strong form also contributed to their side lean. The combined BABIP regression on both offenses was the largest contributing factor to the total projection. Lean: UNDER 8.5 total (-113)

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox (Game 2)

In the second game of the doubleheader, both teams have yet to name their starting pitchers. Our model projects a 4.1–4.4 final score, creating a -0.5 run total edge and a notable +1.2 run margin edge toward the Red Sox compared to the market consensus of 5.0–4.0. Both starting pitcher roles are currently uncertain, with neither pitcher having logged any innings or starts, implying potential bullpen games or short outings, though managers may aim to stretch out these starters. There are no notable park or weather conditions expected to affect play. This is the second game on Friday, with the Red Sox having beaten the Rays in the first leg. The Tampa Bay Rays hold a 5-5 record over their last 10 games, while the Boston Red Sox have been performing well recently with a 9-1 record in their last 10.

How the model decided: The model's lean toward the Boston Red Sox ML is significantly influenced by the 1.2-run margin edge compared to the market. The Red Sox's stronger bullpen, with a 3.21 season relief ERA compared to the league average of 4.20, contributes to their projected advantage, especially given the uncertainty surrounding starting pitcher workloads. The Tampa Bay Rays' BABIP of 0.299 suggests they have been fortunate on balls in play, prompting the model to regress their offense down by 0.13 runs, thereby pushing the side away from the Rays. Conversely, the Boston Red Sox's BABIP of 0.294 also indicates some luck, leading to a minor -0.05 run regression. The superior Red Sox bullpen is the largest contributing factor to the side lean. Lean: Boston Red Sox ML (-109)

Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees

Roki Sasaki starts for the Dodgers, bringing a 5.33 ERA and 8.89 K/9 over 81.0 IP, while Gerrit Cole counters for the Yankees with a 4.04 ERA and 8.63 K/9 over 49.0 IP. SharpSide projects a 4.6–5.2 final score, which translates to a +0.8 run total edge and a +1.0 run margin edge toward the New York Yankees over the market consensus of 4.7–4.3. No significant park or weather conditions are anticipated. This is the first game of a three-game series, with both teams looking to establish rhythm. The Los Angeles Dodgers are 5-5 in their last 10 games, losing their most recent contest while scoring 3 runs. The New York Yankees enter this game with a 6-4 record over their last 10, having won their last game while scoring 5 runs.

How the model decided: The model's lean towards the New York Yankees ML is primarily driven by a combination of factors. The Yankees' strong bullpen, boasting a 3.10 season relief ERA compared to the league average of 4.20, significantly boosts their projected advantage, particularly given Sasaki's average workload of 5.00 IP suggesting earlier bullpen reliance. The New York Yankees' BABIP of 0.279 indicates they have been unlucky on balls in play this season, leading the model to add 0.17 runs to their offense, pushing the side toward the Yankees and slightly increasing the total. Conversely, the Los Angeles Dodgers' BABIP of 0.301 suggests they have experienced some good fortune, prompting a 0.19 run subtraction from their offense. The BABIP regression of the Yankees was the largest individual factor driving the side lean. Lean: New York Yankees ML (-105)

First Five Innings: Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves (F5 UNDER)

The model projects a low-scoring first five innings total of 2.49 runs between the Texas Rangers and Atlanta Braves, a substantial -1.67 run edge compared to the market-implied F5 total of 4.16. This divergence is largely due to the strength of both starting pitchers. Cal Quantrill, with an F5-only ERA of 2.31 over 23.3 IP and a blended ERA of 2.85, faces Chris Sale, who boasts an F5-only ERA of 2.09 over 82.0 IP and a blended ERA of 2.38. Quantrill’s strong early-game performance and Sale’s consistent dominance are key. Furthermore, the park multiplier of 0.930 suggests a pitcher-friendly environment. While the Braves' offense has been unlucky on balls in play, leading to a modest +0.09 run regression, this is insufficient to overcome the potent pitching matchup during the early frames. Lean: F5 UNDER 4.0 total

Batter Prop: Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases

Our attention on this prop is due to significant line movement in the market for Baltimore Orioles third baseman Gunnar Henderson, playing against the Houston Astros. The consensus price for Henderson to go Over 1.5 Total Bases has shifted from +117 to +107, representing a 2.2 probability-point move toward the OVER. This aggressive adjustment across books historically signals sharp action, indicating informed money believes Henderson is undervalued in this spot. Lean: Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+107)

How the model decided

Today's significant divergences from market consensus were primarily driven by a blend of pitcher quality, BABIP regression, and bullpen effectiveness. The Ppitching matchups for the First Five Innings total in the Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves game were paramount, with both starters projecting far stronger than market expectations over the first five frames. BABIP regression played a crucial role in the New York Yankees' favor, as their "unlucky" 0.279 BABIP prompted a 0.17 run addition to their offense, pushing the side toward them. Conversely, the "lucky" BABIP of both the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox in their early game contributed to the model's UNDER lean. The model also considered advanced Sabermetric data, systems trends, and other analytics.

How to read this

SharpSideBaseball provides data-driven projections and leans derived from our proprietary model. These analyses represent the model's view against market consensus, not financial advice.