MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for July 10, 2026 | SharpSide

The Friday 15-game slate presents several divergences from market consensus according to the SharpSide model, with a total run-edge high of +1.4 runs in the Brewers-Pirates matchup. Today we highlight three games where our projections significantly differ from public perception: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, Athletics at Chicago White Sox, and Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates. We also have a First Five Innings lean and a sharp-money-driven player prop.

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds

Shota Imanaga brings a 4.28 ERA and 8.74 K/9 to the mound for the Cubs, facing Hunter Greene, whose 21.6 ERA over a mere 3.3 innings is a tiny sample that the model heavily shrinks. Our projection for this game suggests a total run difference of +1.2 runs compared to the market, and a margin edge of -2.2 runs towards the Reds. The Cubs offense has been unlucky on balls in play, with a 0.285 BABIP, prompting the model to regress their offense up by +0.08 runs. Similarly, the Reds with a 0.278 BABIP, also seen some bad luck, and the model adjusts their offense up by +0.16 runs. Hunter Greene's short 3.33 IP/start average workload means the Reds bullpen will be heavily exposed; their 4.64 season relief ERA is worse than the league average, but with a low fatigue index, the model applies no significant run nudge here. Park and weather conditions for this matchup are neutral, scoring 5, indicating no notable factors influencing offense or pitching. Heading into this series opener, the Cubs went 7-3 in their last 10 games, losing their most recent outing while scoring two runs. The Reds, meanwhile, are 3-7 in their last 10, having been shut out in their last game.

How the model decided: The model’s lean toward the Cubs on the run line is driven by Imanaga’s significantly more stable performance metrics compared to Greene's extremely small sample, pushing the side toward Chicago. The Cubs' unlucky BABIP also added 0.08 runs to their projected offense. Additionally, the Reds' higher season relief ERA suggests a greater vulnerability in the later innings, particularly given Greene's expected short outing. The largest single factor here was the sharp divergence in starting pitching quality.

Lean: Chicago Cubs RL -1.5 (+114)

Athletics @ Chicago White Sox

Jacob Lopez, with a 7.04 ERA and 7.04 K/9 over 53.7 innings, starts for the Athletics against Sean Burke, who boasts a 3.56 ERA and 9.67 K/9 across 98.7 innings. The SharpSide model forecasts a +1.2 run difference from market consensus for the total in this game, with a significant +1.6-run margin edge favoring the White Sox. The Athletics' offense has been fortunate on balls in play, evidenced by their 0.295 BABIP, which leads the model to regress their offense down by -0.07 runs. Conversely, the White Sox have experienced some bad luck with a 0.284 BABIP, resulting in a +0.09 run adjustment upward for their offense. Both bullpens are showing signs of fatigue, with the Athletics' bullpen holding a 5.04 season relief ERA and a fatigue index of 0.29, while the White Sox bullpen, with a 4.06 ERA, has a fatigue index of 0.21, leading to a model run nudge of +0.40 against them. The park and weather conditions are slightly favorable with a score of -7, but are not expected to be a major factor. The Athletics enter this series opener struggling, with a 1-9 record in their last 10 games, losing their most recent contest while scoring only one run. The White Sox are 4-6 in their last 10, also losing their last game with one run scored.

How the model decided: This lean is primarily driven by the significant advantage in starting pitching, with Burke’s better ERA and K/9 stabilizing the White Sox. The Athletics' lucky BABIP, resulting in a -0.07 run regression for their offense, further supports the White Sox side. The model’s upward nudges on the White Sox bullpen due to fatigue also contribute to the total, but the starting pitching disparity was the most impactful factor.

Lean: Chicago White Sox RL -1.5 (+123)

Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Brandon Sproat, with a 5.13 ERA and 9.57 K/9 over 79.0 innings, takes the mound for the Brewers, while Braxton Ashcraft, boasting a 3.24 ERA and 10.14 K/9 across 108.3 innings, starts for the Pirates. Our model projects a total run difference of +1.4 runs compared to the market consensus, with a margin edge of -0.8 runs toward the Pirates. Both offenses have experienced fortunate BABIP luck: the Brewers’ 0.308 BABIP leads to a -0.30 run regression for their offense, and the Pirates’ 0.321 BABIP results in an even larger -0.45 run regression. Brandon Sproat’s average workload of 5.00 innings per start suggests the Brewers' bullpen could be heavily utilized; their 3.42 season relief ERA is strong, but a fatigue index of 0.14 leads to a model run nudge of +0.29 against them. The Pirates' bullpen has a 4.53 season relief ERA and a higher fatigue index of 0.23, resulting in a -0.15 run nudge. Park and weather conditions are neutral with a score of 0. The Brewers are in good form, with a 7-3 record in their last 10 games, having won their last outing while scoring eight runs. The Pirates are 5-5 in their last 10, losing their most recent game while scoring five runs.

How the model decided: The model's lean toward the Over is heavily influenced by the significant BABIP regression applied to both offenses, subtracting substantial negative run adjustments from both the Brewers and Pirates, implying their true offensive output could be higher. While Ashcraft presents a strong starting pitching profile, Sproat’s shorter average outing and both bullpens showing some fatigue, particularly with the Brewers' fatigue nudge, push up the total. The combined BABIP regression from both offenses was the largest contributing factor to the high total.

Lean: OVER 8.5 total (-111)

First Five Innings: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals (F5 UNDER)

The SharpSide model identifies an F5 Under lean in the New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals game, projecting an F5 total of 4.19 runs compared to the market-implied 5.20. Ryan Weathers, with a blended F5-only ERA of 4.14 over 78.0 innings, faces Carson Palmquist, whose 7.11 ERA over a tiny sample of 6.3 innings is shrunk by the model to a more stable 4.68. The Yankees' offense has been somewhat unlucky on balls in play, with their BABIP leading to a +0.20 run increase from the model, but the Nationals offense is showing neutral BABIP luck. The park multiplier for this game is 0.930, subtly depressing runs. The primary driver for the F5 Under is the combined stability of the starting pitching (even with Palmquist's small sample), relative to the market's expectation.

Lean: F5 UNDER 5.0 total

Batter Prop: Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Total Bases

This batter prop lean for Yandy Diaz to hit Over 1.5 Total Bases in the Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays matchup is driven by clear market movement. The consensus price for this prop has moved from +131 to +114, representing a significant shift of 3.4 probability-points toward the Over. This aggressive line movement is a strong indicator of sharp money entering the market, suggesting that professional bettors perceive value in Diaz exceeding 1.5 total bases today. Historically, such pronounced shifts in probability points often flag smart money and can lead to profitable opportunities.

Lean: Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+114)

How the model decided

Today's divergences from market consensus were primarily driven by a combination of starter quality, offensive BABIP regression, and bullpen implications. In the Cubs-Reds game, the wide gap in starting pitching quality was the largest single factor, combined with both teams' unlucky BABIP pushing their offensive projections up. For the Athletics-White Sox matchup, Sean Burke's strong starting numbers combined with the Athletics' fortunate BABIP weighed heavily on the model's side lean. The Milwaukee-Pittsburgh total was most influenced by the significant negative run adjustments stemming from both offenses' lucky BABIPs. One of our active SharpSide systems, "Favorite coming off a blowout win (margin ≥ 5)" which has a historical hit rate of 76.5% vs a 67.0% baseline, also informed several picks. The model also considered advanced Sabermetric data, systems trends, and other analytics.

How to read this

This analysis reflects the SharpSide model's view of value compared to current market prices. It is presented for informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice.