MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for July 10, 2026 | SharpSide

On this Friday, the MLB slate features 15 games. Our model has identified significant discrepancies in market perception, with the largest single run-edge of the day appearing in the Chicago Cubs-Cincinnati Reds matchup, where our projection diverges from consensus by +1.5 runs. Today, we highlight three matchups where SharpSide is diverging from market consensus: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers, and Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates.

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds

The SharpSide model projects 1.5 more runs than the market consensus for this game. On the mound, Shota Imanaga, with a 4.28 ERA and 8.74 K/9 over 103.0 innings, faces Hunter Greene, whose 21.6 ERA and 18.90 K/9 come from a tiny 3.3-inning sample, effectively rendering this a bullpen game for the Reds from the outset. The Chicago Cubs offense has been unlucky on balls in play, evidenced by their 0.285 BABIP, leading our model to regress their offensive output up by +0.08 runs. Similarly, the Cincinnati Reds, with a 0.278 BABIP, are also due for positive regression, with our model adding +0.16 runs to their projected offense. Hunter Greene's short 3.33 IP/start average, contrasted with Imanaga's 5.50 IP/start, means the Cincinnati bullpen, sporting a 4.64 season relief ERA, will be heavily exposed early. Park and weather conditions are neutral, with a score of 23 indicating no notable factors. The Cubs enter this series opener 7-3 in their last 10 games, with their last outing being a loss where they scored only 2 runs. The Reds are 3-7 in their last 10, entering this game having been shut out in their last contest.

How the model decided: The significant gap in projected starting pitcher workload heavily influenced the model, particularly given the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen performance which registered a 4.64 season relief ERA. The positive BABIP regression for both the Cubs (+0.08 runs) and Reds (+0.16 runs) also pushed the total runs higher. The largest single mover was the early exposure of the high-ERA Reds bullpen due to their short-sample starter.

Lean: Chicago Cubs RL -1.5 (-104)

Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers

Our model's total projection is 1.7 runs higher than the market consensus for this matchup. Aaron Nola, with a 5.87 ERA and 9.20 K/9 over 92.0 innings, takes the mound against Jack Flaherty, who holds a 4.6 ERA and 10.85 K/9 over 76.3 innings. Both starters average under 5.1 innings per start, with Nola at 5.05 IP/start and Flaherty at 4.73 IP/start, indicating early bullpen involvement for both teams. The Philadelphia Phillies' offense has a 0.279 BABIP, suggesting they have been unlucky on balls in play, and our model adjusts their offense up by +0.16 runs. The Detroit Tigers also show a 0.281 BABIP, leading to a +0.12 run regression for their offense. Park and weather conditions are neutral, scoring 0. The Phillies are 5-5 in their last 10 games, winning their last contest by scoring 1 run, while the Tigers are 8-2 in their last 10, winning their last game by scoring 4 runs.

How the model decided: The early exits expected from both starting pitchers, driving both bullpens into action earlier than typical, significantly influenced the model's total. Coupled with this, the positive BABIP regression for both the Phillies (+0.16 runs) and the Tigers (+0.12 runs) added to the projected offensive output. The combined short workloads of both starters served as the largest driver toward our higher total projection.

Lean: OVER 8.5 total (-113)

Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

The SharpSide model projects a total of 1.5 runs higher than the market consensus in this contest. Brandon Sproat, with a 5.13 ERA and 9.57 K/9 over 79.0 innings, faces Braxton Ashcraft, who has a 3.24 ERA and 10.14 K/9 over 108.3 innings. Sproat's average of 5.00 IP/start means the Milwaukee bullpen will be exposed early, while Ashcraft averages 5.61 IP/start. The Milwaukee Brewers offense has been lucky on balls in play, with a 0.308 BABIP, causing our model to regress their offense down by -0.30 runs. Similarly, the Pittsburgh Pirates' 0.321 BABIP suggests they have also been lucky, leading to a -0.45 run regression for their offense. The Brewers bullpen, with a 3.42 season relief ERA and a fatigue index of 0.14, received a model run nudge of +0.29 due to their workload. The Pirates bullpen, however, is taxed, with a fatigue index of 0.23, leading to a model run nudge of -0.15 despite their 4.53 season relief ERA. Park and weather conditions are neutral, scoring 0. The Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 games, winning their last contest by scoring 8 runs, while the Pirates are 5-5, losing their last game despite scoring 5 runs.

How the model decided: The significant positive fatigue index for both bullpens, particularly the taxed Pirates bullpen, heavily influenced the model's total, indicating potential late-game scoring. The lucky BABIP regressions for both the Brewers (-0.30 runs) and the Pirates (-0.45 runs) had a substantial joint impact, pushing the total down somewhat but being offset by the bullpen factors. The bullpen fatigue and the short expected outing from Sproat were the most impactful factors.

Lean: OVER 8.5 total (-110)

First Five Innings: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals (F5 UNDER)

In the New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals matchup, our Bayesian starter model projects an F5 total of 4.19 runs against a market-implied 5.20. Ryan Weathers, with an F5-only ERA of 4.14 (blended from his 4.04 ERA over 78.0 IP and 4.29 xERA over 92.3 IP), draws the start for the Yankees. He faces Carson Palmquist, whose 7.11 ERA over a tiny 6.3 IP sample is shrunk to 4.68 by our model for a more stable estimate. The Yankees' offense shows an unlucky BABIP of 0.278, causing our model to regress their offense up by +0.20 runs. The Nationals offense is experiencing neutral BABIP luck. The park multiplier of 0.930 also slightly dampens overall scoring expectations.

Lean: F5 UNDER 5.0 total

How the model decided

Today's divergences from market consensus are heavily driven by a combination of starter workload issues, bullpen fatigue, and BABIP regression. The Chicago Cubs-Cincinnati Reds game, for instance, sees our model highlight the massive workload burden on the Reds' bullpen following Hunter Greene's tiny sample size. In the Philadelphia Phillies-Detroit Tigers matchup, the combined short IP/start for both Nola and Flaherty, coupled with positive BABIP regression for both offenses, points to a higher total. The Brewers-Pirates game features a taxed Pirates bullpen, pushing the total higher despite negative BABIP regression for both offenses. The "Favorite coming off a blowout win (margin ≥ 5)" system has an historical hit rate of 76.5% versus a 67.0% baseline, providing a +9.4 percentage point lift. The model also considered advanced Sabermetric data, systems trends, and other analytics.

How to read this

This analysis represents the SharpSide model's statistical view of today's MLB slate, highlighting discrepancies against current market odds. It is not financial advice but rather an informational tool for serious baseball bettors.