MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for July 5, 2026 | SharpSide

A 15-game slate on Sunday presents several divergences between SharpSide's predictive models and market consensus. The most significant total run edge of the day is found in the St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs matchup, where our model sees a +2.0 run difference compared to the market. Other key matchups drawing our attention today include Milwaukee at Arizona, and the New York Mets traveling to Atlanta.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs

The market is mispricing the total in the matchup between Matthew Liberatore (5.33 ERA, 8.60 K/9 over 82.7 IP) and Javier Assad (4.53 ERA, 5.40 K/9 over 51.7 IP). Our model identifies a +2.0 run total edge over the consensus, leaning to the Over. Our projection also shows a +0.6 run margin edge toward the home side. Both the Cardinals' .287 BABIP and the Cubs' .286 BABIP indicate both offenses have been unlucky on balls in play, prompting our model to regress both offenses up by +0.05 and +0.07 runs respectively. Both starters, Liberatore (avg 4.86 IP/start) and Assad (avg 3.97 IP/start), have short workloads, suggesting early bullpen exposure. The Cardinals' bullpen is taxed with a fatigue index of 0.30, and their 4.18 season relief ERA is around league average. The Cubs' bullpen, however, shows a strong model run nudge of +0.22, indicating their relief corps is projected to be more effective than market implicitly accounts for. There are no notable park or weather conditions impacting this game. This is Game 3 of 3 in the series, with the Cardinals having taken the first two games (17-1 and 3-0). The Cardinals are 5-5 in their last 10 games, scoring 3 runs in their last outing, while the Cubs are 7-3 and were shut out in their last game.

How the model decided: The short combined starter workload, pushing the game to bullpens, increased the total. The positive offensive regression for both the Cardinals (+0.05 runs) and Cubs (+0.07 runs) also pushed the total upwards. Conversely, the Cubs' bullpen run nudge of +0.22 runs slightly suppressed the total. The short starter workload was the largest mover for the total. Lean: OVER 8.5 total

Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

The market is undervaluing the Diamondbacks in their game against the Brewers, with our model showing a +1.9 run margin edge toward the home team. This matchup features Brandon Sproat (5.28 ERA, 9.60 K/9 over 75.0 IP) against Eduardo Rodriguez (2.21 ERA, 6.26 K/9 over 102.0 IP). The Brewers' .308 BABIP suggests their offense has been lucky on balls in play, leading our model to regress their offense down by -0.30 runs. Conversely, the Diamondbacks' .275 BABIP indicates they have been unlucky, resulting in a +0.21 run regression upwards for their offense. The Brewers' bullpen is taxed with a fatigue index of 0.39, while holding a 3.51 season relief ERA, which pushes against their favored status. There are no notable park or weather conditions for this game. This is Game 3 of 3 in the series, with the Diamondbacks having won the previous game 4-3 after the Brewers took Game 1, 7-4. The Brewers are 6-4 in their last 10 games, scoring 3 runs in their last outing, while the Diamondbacks are 5-5, scoring 4 runs in their last game.

How the model decided: Eduardo Rodriguez's strong 2.21 ERA significantly boosted the Diamondbacks' side. The substantial negative offensive regression for the Brewers (-0.30 runs) further reinforced the model's lean towards the Diamondbacks. The fatigued Brewers bullpen, despite its strong ERA, added slight downside risk to their side. Negative offensive regression for the Brewers was the largest mover. Lean: Arizona Diamondbacks ML

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

SharpSide's model projects a lower total for the Mets and Braves than the current market consensus, identifying a -1.8 run total edge. This game features Nolan McLean (3.78 ERA, 10.67 K/9 over 95.3 IP) going against Martín Pérez (3.27 ERA, 7.13 K/9 over 77.0 IP). Both the Mets' .271 BABIP and the Braves' .283 BABIP suggest both offenses have been unlucky on balls in play, driving upward regressions of +0.24 runs for the Mets and +0.11 runs for the Braves. The Mets' bullpen, with a 3.58 season relief ERA, shows a strong model run nudge downwards of -0.35, implying it is better than its surface ERA suggests. The Braves' excellent bullpen (2.88 season relief ERA) also receives a negative model run nudge of -0.28. There are no notable park or weather conditions. This is Game 3 of 4 in the series, with the Braves having won the first two games (5-3 and 14-3). The Mets are 2-8 in their last 10 games, scoring 3 runs in their last outing, while the Braves are 4-6, scoring 14 runs in their last game.

How the model decided: The significant negative model run nudges for both the Mets (-0.35 runs) and Braves (-0.28 runs) bullpens were strong drivers toward the under. The solid starting pitching from both McLean (3.78 ERA) and Pérez (3.27 ERA) also contributed to a lower total projection. The excellent bullpen performance from both sides was the largest factor. Lean: UNDER 8.5 total

First Five Innings: Miami Marlins @ Athletics (F5 UNDER)

In the First Five Innings, the model sees a substantial edge on the under for the Miami Marlins at Athletics matchup. Our F5 model projects a total of 3.43 runs compared to a market-implied 4.94 runs, yielding a -1.51 run edge towards the under. This is underpinned by Eury Pérez's F5-only ERA of 4.20 over 66.7 IP and Gage Jump's F5-only ERA of 3.01 over 34.7 IP. The Marlins' offense has been lucky on balls in play (.308 BABIP), leading to a model regression of -0.18 runs, further supporting the under. The Athletics also show slight offensive luck regression of -0.09 runs.

Lean: F5 UNDER 4.5 total

How the model decided

Today's significant divergences from market consensus are driven by a confluence of factors beyond surface-level statistics. In the Cardinals-Cubs game, short starter workloads and positive offensive regression for both teams pushed the total higher. The Diamondbacks-Brewers matchup saw substantial negative offensive regression for Milwaukee and strong starting pitching from Arizona drive our lean. For the Mets-Braves, effective bullpens for both clubs and solid starting pitching suppressed the model's total projection. The model also considered advanced Sabermetric data, systems trends, and other analytics.

How to read this

This analysis reflects SharpSide's quantitative model's view of today's MLB slate compared to current market pricing. This is not financial advice, but rather an indication of where our models perceive value.