MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for June 25, 2026 | SharpSide

Today's slate presents several interesting divergences from market consensus, with the SharpSide model identifying significant run-total edges. Our biggest single run-edge of the day, a full +1.7 runs, comes in the Chicago Cubs at New York Mets matchup. Other notable games where our model signals inefficiency include Athletics at San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals. These discrepancies are driven by a combination of starter analysis and context-adjusted offensive projections.

Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets

The SharpSide model projects 1.7 more runs than the market consensus in the Cubs at Mets game. Our proprietary score of 5.3–4.9, totaling 10.2 runs, contrasts with the market's 4.7–3.8, totaling 8.5 runs. The pitching matchup features Matthew Boyd for Chicago, who carries a 6.00 ERA and an elevated 11.63 K/9 across 22.3 innings, against Freddy Peralta for New York, pitching with a 4.83 ERA and an 8.72 K/9 over 77.0 innings. The New York Mets offense has experienced a .273 BABIP, indicating they have been unlucky on balls in play, and our model regresses their offensive projection up by +0.17 runs. The Chicago Cubs offense carries a neutral .288 BABIP, suggesting no significant luck adjustments are needed. Park and weather conditions are noted as neutral for this contest. The primary factor moving our projection significantly higher than the market is the model's more critical assessment of both starting pitchers' true run prevention capabilities.

Lean: OVER

Athletics @ San Francisco Giants

Our model identifies a 1.3-run total edge over current market consensus for the Athletics at Giants game. The SharpSide model projects a 4.6–5.2 final score, summing to 9.8 runs, while the market anticipates a much lower 3.8–4.7, for a total of 8.5 runs. Jeffrey Springs, starting for the Athletics, enters with a 5.55 ERA and a 7.84 K/9 over 74.3 innings, while the Giants counter with Landen Roupp, who has a 4.15 ERA and a 9.97 K/9 across 71.7 innings. The San Francisco Giants offense has benefited from a .301 BABIP, suggesting they have been lucky on balls in play, resulting in our model regressing their offensive output down by -0.11 runs. The Athletics offense has a neutral .291 BABIP, indicating no material luck-based adjustments. There are no notable park or weather conditions influencing this matchup. The significant difference in projected totals is largely attributable to the model's more bearish outlook on the run prevention of both starting pitchers.

Lean: OVER

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals

The SharpSide model projects 1.3 more runs than the market consensus in the Phillies at Nationals game. Our projection of 5.6–4.2, totaling 9.8 runs, starkly contrasts with the market's 5.0–3.5, which totals 8.5 runs. Philadelphia sends Cristopher Sánchez to the mound, who boasts an excellent 1.80 ERA and 10.37 K/9 over 80.0 innings. Washington counters with Cade Cavalli, who has a 4.07 ERA and 9.54 K/9 across 70.3 innings. The Philadelphia Phillies' offense has posted a .274 BABIP, indicating they have been unlucky on balls in play, prompting our model to regress their offense up by +0.16 runs. The Washington Nationals' offense, with a .286 BABIP, has also been slightly unlucky, leading to a modest +0.04 run regression upwards. This game features benign park and weather conditions. The primary driver of the model's higher total is the comprehensive re-evaluation of both offenses' true scoring potential, especially given the BABIP indicators.

Lean: OVER

First Five Innings: Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates (F5 UNDER)

The F5 total in the Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates game presents a strong UNDER lean today. Our Bayesian starter model calculates a projected F5 total of 2.60 runs, significantly below the market's implied F5 total of 4.42 runs. This substantial delta is largely due to the pitching matchup. Seattle's Bryce Miller carries an impressive blended F5-only ERA of 0.98, derived from his 0.58 F5-only ERA over 31.0 innings blended with his 1.58 ERA. Pittsburgh's Bubba Chandler, while less dominant, still brings a blended F5-only ERA of 4.48. Additionally, the home Pittsburgh offense has been lucky on balls in play, evidenced by a BABIP indicating a -0.25 run regression in our model.

Lean: F5 UNDER

Player Prop: Matthew Boyd Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Matthew Boyd is our strongest K-prop lean for today. His season K/9 of 11.63 is significantly above the league average of 8.50, representing a +3.13 K/9 advantage. Based on a projected workload of 5.5 innings against the New York Mets, our model projects Boyd for 7.11 strikeouts. This projection comfortably exceeds the typical book line of 6.5 strikeouts.

Lean: OVER 6.5 strikeouts

How the model decided

The key differentiators in today's projections stem primarily from the model's adjustments to starter quality and the impact of BABIP regression on team offenses. In the Cubs at Mets game, the market appears to undervalue the offensive upside of both teams, particularly given our sharper assessment of the starting pitching. Similarly, the Athletics at Giants total divergence is driven by a more critical view of the starters. The Phillies at Nationals game highlights how BABIP regression can materially shift offensive projections, as our model adjusts both offenses upwards, contrary to what the market is reflecting.

How to read this

These analyses represent the SharpSide model's view of value compared to current market consensus. They are provided for informational and analytical purposes; they do not constitute financial advice or guarantees of future results.