MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for June 24, 2026 | SharpSide

Today's MLB slate presents several intriguing divergences from market consensus, with our model isolating significant value opportunities. We're focusing on the Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, the Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays, and the Chicago Cubs at New York Mets. The largest single run-edge of the day sits at +2.4 runs, indicating substantial disagreement between our projections and public pricing.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals

This matchup features Aaron Nola (5.71 ERA, 5.68 F5-only ERA) against Miles Mikolas (5.47 ERA, 6.08 F5-only ERA), a pairing where our model projects a total of 11.9 runs. This stands +2.4 runs higher than the market consensus, suggesting a significant undervaluation of offensive output. Furthermore, our model gives the home side a +1.0 run margin edge compared to the market. The Philadelphia Phillies, with a .275 BABIP, have experienced unluckiness on balls in play, prompting our model to regress their offense up by +0.15 runs. Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals' .288 BABIP indicates neutral luck, leading to no significant offensive regression from our model. Park and weather conditions are neutral, noted with a score of -7 indicating no notable conditions impacting scoring. The primary driver of this projection shift is the combination of both starting pitchers' sub-par F5-only ERA metrics, which the market appears to be under-weighting.

Lean OVER.

Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays

Noah Cameron (4.20 ERA, 8.40 K/9) faces Griffin Jax (3.67 ERA, 2.85 F5-only ERA) in a game where our model projects 9.6 total runs, +2.1 runs above the market consensus. This indicates a strong lean towards more offense than priced. The model also registers a -0.7 run margin edge towards the home team, differing from market expectation. The Kansas City Royals' .292 BABIP suggests neutral luck on balls in play, resulting in no major offensive adjustment. Conversely, the Tampa Bay Rays, with a .302 BABIP, have benefited from lucky outcomes on balls in play, leading our model to regress their offense down by -0.12 runs. Park and weather conditions are neutral, with a score of 0, indicating no notable influence on the game's run environment. The most substantial factor driving this divergence is the underestimated offensive potential across both lineups relative to the starting pitching.

Lean OVER.

Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets

The Chicago Cubs face the New York Mets, with an unnamed starter for the Cubs going against Nolan McLean (3.67 ERA, 10.48 K/9). Our model projects a total of 7.9 runs for this game, which is -0.6 runs below the market consensus, suggesting the market is over-pricing the scoring potential. Crucially, our model identifies a +1.6 run margin edge favoring the home side, indicating hidden value on the Mets. The Chicago Cubs, with a .286 BABIP, have experienced slight unluckiness on balls in play, leading our model to regress their offense up by +0.04 runs. The New York Mets have seen significant unluckiness with their .274 BABIP, causing our model to regress their offense up by +0.16 runs. Park and weather conditions are neutral for this contest, registered at -7. The primary driver for this discrepancy is the market's over-evaluation of both offenses, despite underlying BABIP metrics, especially concerning the Mets' projected output against an unknown starter.

Home side has hidden value.

First Five Innings: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins (F5 UNDER)

In the First Five Innings, our Bayesian starter model identifies a clear F5 Under opportunity in the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins game. Shohei Ohtani, with an F5-only ERA of 1.50 blended to 1.49, faces Joe Ryan, whose F5-only ERA of 3.03 blends to 3.01. Our model projects an F5 total of 2.14 runs. This contrasts sharply with the market's implied F5 total of 3.90 runs, presenting a significant edge of -1.76 runs towards the under. The Los Angeles Dodgers' offense has been lucky on balls in play (BABIP .298), leading our model to regress their offense down by -0.11 runs. The Minnesota Twins, conversely, have been unlucky (BABIP .287), resulting in an offensive regression up by +0.03 runs.

Lean F5 UNDER.

Player Prop: Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Jacob deGrom of the Texas Rangers, facing the Miami Marlins, carries a season K/9 of 10.67, which is 2.17 strikeouts above the league average of 8.50. Projecting a typical workload of 5.5 innings, our model estimates deGrom to record 6.52 strikeouts. This figure aligns precisely with the typical book line of 6.5 strikeouts for deGrom. Based on his significant K/9 advantage, this represents the strongest analytical lean for strikeouts on today's slate.

Lean OVER 6.5 strikeouts.

How the model decided

Today's divergences from the market are primarily driven by a combination of factors. Starter quality, particularly the F5-only ERA metrics, played a significant role in the Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals game, where the market seemed to underestimate offensive potential. BABIP regression also contributed, as seen with the Philadelphia Phillies' offense being regressed up. In the Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays game, the overall offensive potential, adjusted by BABIP regression on the Rays, created a substantial total run edge. The Chicago Cubs at New York Mets divergence was influenced by a projected starting pitcher for the Cubs and contrasting BABIP luck adjustments for both teams.

How to read this

This analysis presents our proprietary model's projected outcomes relative to current market consensus. These are not betting recommendations, but rather indicators of where our quantitative edges are identified for informational purposes.