MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for June 23, 2026 | SharpSide

Today's MLB slate presents several intriguing differentials between SharpSide projections and consensus market pricing. Our model identifies a substantial 2.8-run total edge in the Cubs-Mets matchup, representing the largest single game run-differential of the day. Attention is also drawn to the Phillies-Nationals and Brewers-Reds contests, where SharpSide's calculations diverge significantly from public perception.

Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets

The SharpSide model projects 2.8 more runs than the market consensus in the Cubs-Mets game, leaning heavily toward the over. This is driven by starting pitching discrepancies. Edward Cabrera enters with a 5.21 ERA and an elevated 5.49 F5-only ERA, suggesting early game vulnerability. Kodai Senga, despite a strong 10.50 K/9, carries a 9.00 ERA and an equally concerning 8.87 F5-only ERA over a limited sample. The Mets' offense, with a .275 BABIP, has experienced pronounced bad luck on balls in play, leading our model to regress their offensive output up by +0.15 runs. Similarly, the Chicago Cubs' .286 BABIP indicates they have been unlucky, resulting in a +0.04 run offensive regression. There are no notable park or weather conditions influencing this game. The significant F5 ERA figures for both starters were the primary drivers for the model's elevated total.

Lean: OVER

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals

Our model indicates a 2.5-run total edge over the market in the Phillies vs. Nationals game, with an additional 0.9-run margin swing toward the home team. Starting pitchers Jesús Luzardo (4.20 ERA, 3.61 F5-only ERA) and Zack Littell (5.45 ERA, 5.92 F5-only ERA) present a clear contrast. Littell's elevated F5 ERA, combined with a low 5.20 K/9, points to inherent struggles. The Philadelphia Phillies' offense is projected for a significant boost, as their .271 BABIP suggests they have been unlucky on balls in play, resulting in a +0.19 run offensive regression. The Washington Nationals, with a .286 BABIP, have also experienced some bad luck, leading to a +0.04 run offensive regression. Park and weather conditions are neutral for this contest. The substantial offensive regression for the Phillies, combined with Littell's poor F5 metrics, were the most influential factors pushing the total higher.

Lean: OVER

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds

The Brewers-Reds game sees our model project 2.3 more runs than the market, along with a 0.9-run shift toward the home team. Brandon Sproat takes the mound for Milwaukee with a 5.94 ERA and 5.46 F5-only ERA, while Nick Lodolo counters for Cincinnati with a 6.12 ERA and 5.35 F5-only ERA over 38.7 innings. Both starters have displayed inefficiency. The Milwaukee Brewers' .308 BABIP indicates favorable luck on balls in play, prompting our model to regress their offense down by -0.18 runs. Conversely, the Cincinnati Reds' .276 BABIP suggests they have been unlucky, leading to a +0.14 run offensive regression. There are no notable park or weather factors at play. The combination of underperforming starting pitching on both sides and significant BABIP regression for the Brewers was the main impetus for the elevated total.

Lean: OVER

First Five Innings: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins (F5 UNDER)

The First Five Innings total for the Dodgers-Twins game presents a significant divergence, with our model projecting 1.76 runs compared to a market-implied 4.42. This F5 Under lean is primarily driven by the exceptional performance of both starting pitchers. Justin Wrobleski, with an F5-only ERA of 2.26 blended with a 2.72 ERA, and Kendry Rojas, boasting a 1.26 ERA, are expected to dominate early. The Los Angeles Dodgers' offense, having been lucky with a high BABIP, sees a -0.08 run regression in our model, while the Minnesota Twins offense exhibits neutral BABIP luck. The conservative park multiplier of 0.930 further reinforces a low-scoring early game.

Lean: F5 UNDER

Player Prop: Kodai Senga Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Kodai Senga is projected to exceed his typical strikeout line of 5.5 in his start against the Chicago Cubs. His impressive season K/9 of 10.50 is a full 2.00 points above the league average of 8.50. Factoring in a typical workload of 5.5 innings, our model projects Senga for 6.42 strikeouts. This represents the strongest strikeout lean on the entire slate, indicating substantial value on the over.

Lean: OVER 5.5 Strikeouts

How the model decided

Today's largest divergences from market consensus are largely driven by a combination of starter quality metrics and BABIP regression. In the Cubs-Mets and Phillies-Nationals matchups, elevated F5-only ERAs for the starting pitchers, particularly Senga, Cabrera, and Littell, significantly influenced the model's higher run totals. Furthermore, the systematic regression of BABIP luck played a crucial role. For instance, the significant upward regression for the Mets' and Phillies' offenses due to their low BABIPs added substantial projected runs in those games, creating the noted discrepancies with market totals.

How to read this

This analysis reflects the SharpSide model's independent projection of today's MLB slate, highlighting where our calculations deviate from current market consensus. It is provided for informational purposes as a guide to potential value, not a directive for financial action.