MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for June 22, 2026 | SharpSide

The SharpSide model identifies several valuation discrepancies across today's MLB slate. The total run-edge of the day sits at +2.0 runs in the Dodgers-Twins matchup. Other notable divergences include the Brewers-Reds and Astros-Blue Jays games, where our projections deviate significantly from consensus.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins

The SharpSide model projects a total of 11.5 runs (5.7–5.8), two runs higher than the market consensus of 9.5 runs (5.2–4.3). This represents the largest total edge on the slate. Eric Lauer, with a 5.37 ERA and a 5.90 F5-only ERA, faces Zebby Matthews, who holds a 4.78 ERA and a 5.50 F5-only ERA. The Dodgers' offense has experienced BABIP luck, with their 0.298 BABIP being regressed down by -0.08 runs, indicating they have been fortunate on balls in play. Conversely, the Minnesota Twins' BABIP of 0.291 is considered neutral, implying no significant luck regression. The park and weather conditions score 0, indicating no notable factors influencing play at the stadium. The primary driver of the model's divergence here is the projection of higher offensive output from both sides, particularly in the later innings, based on the starters' underlying metrics.

Lean: OVER

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds

Our model anticipates a significantly higher scoring affair in Cincinnati, projecting 11.1 runs (6.6–4.5) compared to the market's 9.5 runs (5.5–4.0). This 1.6-run total edge indicates a strong lean to the over. The Brewers have a TBA starter, while Brady Singer takes the mound for the Reds, carrying a 5.32 ERA and a 5.69 F5-only ERA. The Milwaukee Brewers' offense has benefited from a lucky 0.309 BABIP, leading to a -0.19 run regression in our model. In contrast, the Cincinnati Reds have been unlucky with their 0.277 BABIP, resulting in a +0.13 run upward regression to their offense. A park/weather score of 17 suggests no specific conditions are influencing the game. The key factor driving this total run edge is the underlying offensive potential of both teams, specifically the Reds who have been unlucky on balls in play.

Lean: OVER

Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays

The SharpSide model projects a lower-scoring game of 7.9 runs (4.5–3.4) at Rogers Centre, contrasting with the market consensus of 7.6 runs (3.6–4.0). This modest total edge of +0.3 runs, coupled with a significant -1.5 run margin edge toward the home team for the market, suggests hidden value on the away side. Hunter Brown, with a stellar 1.1 ERA and 1.23 F5-only ERA, looks to dominate against a TBA starter for the Blue Jays. The Houston Astros' 0.282 BABIP indicates they have been unlucky, prompting a +0.08 run regression upward for their offense. Similarly, the Toronto Blue Jays' offense has also been unlucky with a 0.287 BABIP, leading to a +0.03 run upward regression. Park conditions are neutral with a score of 0. The model's primary divergence here stems from a strong projection for Hunter Brown against an unannounced starter for Toronto.

Lean: Away side has hidden value

First Five Innings: Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets (F5 OVER)

The model's F5 total projection for the Cubs and Mets is 6.05 runs, a significant delta from the market-implied 4.42 runs. This +1.63 run edge points to a strong belief in a higher-scoring first five innings. Shota Imanaga, the Cubs' starter, comes in with a blended F5-only ERA of 3.81 (3.51 ERA blended 60/40 with 4.26 ERA), while the Mets' Kodai Senga has a blended F5-only ERA of 8.92 (8.87 ERA blended 60/40 with 9.00 ERA). Both offenses have experienced poor BABIP luck, with the Cubs' offense regressed up by +0.04 runs and the Mets' offense regressed up by +0.15 runs. The park factor (0.930) is slightly supressing scoring but not enough to offset the projected offensive output. The combination of Senga's struggles and both teams' underlying offensive potential drives this F5 over projection.

Lean: F5 OVER

Player Prop: Hunter Brown Over 7.5 Strikeouts

Hunter Brown presents the strongest strikeout proposition on the slate. His season K/9 of 13.22 is a remarkable 4.72 strikeouts above the league average of 8.50. Projecting a typical workload of 5.5 innings, Brown is expected to record 8.08 strikeouts. Against the Toronto Blue Jays, with a typical book line of 7.5, the model sees a clear edge for the over.

Lean: OVER 7.5 strikeouts

How the model decided

Today's largest divergences from market consensus are primarily driven by a combination of starter quality, particularly in the Astros-Blue Jays matchup, and BABIP regression. The model identified significant luck factors for offenses in the Dodgers-Twins and Brewers-Reds games, leading to substantial adjustments in projected run totals. While park and weather conditions were largely neutral, the underlying offensive efficiency and starting pitching quality, when contrasted against market expectations of raw ERA, created these betting edges.

How to read this

This analysis represents the SharpSide model's projected outcomes and does not constitute financial advice. It serves to highlight areas where our quantitative framework diverges from market consensus, offering unique valuation insights.