MLB Picks Today: Predictions & Best Bets for May 31, 2026 | SharpSide

Today’s MLB slate offers several distinct edges, with our model identifying significant total and margin discrepancies compared to consensus market pricing. Sharp bettors should note these divergences.

San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals

Our model projects a 5.3–6.0 final score, a stark contrast to the market's 5.0–4.1. This indicates a total edge of +2.2 runs and a margin edge of +1.6 runs toward Washington. The starters, Griffin Canning (7.16 ERA) and Zack Littell (5.01 ERA), suggest a higher-scoring affair than consensus. San Diego's offense has been unlucky on balls in play, with a .260 BABIP (league average .290); our model regresses them up by +0.30 runs to account for natural normalization. Similarly, Washington's .287 BABIP indicates slight misfortune, prompting a +0.03 run regression upwards.

Model lean: OVER the total

Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros

The SharpSide model forecasts a 6.2–3.5 outcome, showing a +2.2 run total edge compared to the market's 4.5–3.0. This also implies a -1.2 run margin edge towards the away team. The starting pitching matchup features Jacob Misiorowski (1.65 ERA) against Tatsuya Imai (5.52 ERA), favoring Milwaukee heavily. Milwaukee's .299 BABIP indicates they've been lucky, leading the model to regress their offense down by -0.09 runs. Conversely, Houston's .283 BABIP suggests an unlucky offensive performance, and the model adjusts them up by +0.07 runs.

Model lean: OVER the total

First Five Innings: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals (F5 OVER)

This F5 matchup presents a significant model-market divergence, with our projection for the first five innings at 10.16 runs against a market-implied 4.42. Chicago’s starter, Jordan Wicks, owns a 16.62 ERA. St. Louis counters with Matthew Liberatore, whose F5-only ERA, blended with xERA, suggests a 4.75 mark. Both offenses have experienced some bad luck on balls in play, with the Cubs seeing a +0.06 run adjustment and the Cardinals a +0.13 run adjustment due to low BABIPs. These factors point to substantial early-game scoring.

Lean: F5 OVER the total

Player Prop: Jacob Misiorowski Over 7.5 Strikeouts

Milwaukee's Jacob Misiorowski possesses a season K/9 rate of 13.69, which is 5.19 K/9 above the league average of 8.50. Projecting for a typical 5.5 innings of work, this translates to 8.37 expected strikeouts. Given that the typical book line is set at 7.5, Misiorowski offers the strongest analytical strikeout lean of the day.

Lean: Jacob Misiorowski OVER 7.5 strikeouts

How to read this

This analysis details where the SharpSide model's projections deviate from current market consensus. These are statistical indicators, not financial advice.